{"F": {"ts_code": "000859.SZ", "name": "国风新材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "塑料", "sw3": "膜材料", "ind": "塑料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19981119", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.95, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.9842, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 801898.7885, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [16.1, 18.4, 11.7, 5.5, 4.6, 5.5], "rev_series": [14.8, 19.1, 24.6, 22.4, 23.1, 21.7], "np_series": [1.1, 2.8, 2.3, -0.3, -0.7, -0.7], "roe_series": [6.8, 12.7, 8.2, -1.0, -2.5, -2.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 23.1, "np_ttm": -0.6, "ocf_ttm": 1.2, "fcf_ttm": -5.0, "fcf_yield": -6.2, "ocf_yield": 1.5, "gm_median": 5.5, "gm_std": 5.3, "gm_stab": 0.04, "gm_chg_2022": -4.3, "npm_median": -1.3, "roe_median": -1.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 66.6, "fix_assets": 30.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.98, "capex_dep": 3.83, "interest_debt": 10.2, "debt_ebitda": 9.3, "debt_ratio": 41.1, "debt_mv": 12.8, "payout": null, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -4.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 14.0, "np_yoy": 20.6, "np_vol": 101.3, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["薄膜材料", 66.0], ["其他主营业务", 10.0], ["其他", 10.0], ["新能源汽车配套材料", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 100.0, "ret_prev2_year": -4.7, "ret_ytd": -11.6, "ret_pivot": 169.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.3, "ret_60": -22.2, "ret_120": -17.2, "ret_250": 24.8, "mdd_250": -48.3, "vol_250": 69.6, "pos_52w": 66.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 8, "hard": 100, "bondness": 35}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 67%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 5.5%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.3 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 9.3 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 67%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 5.5%,稳定度 4%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -6.2%(经营现金流/市值 1.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 5.5%,稳定度 4%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 67%,资本开支/折旧 3.83 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 25%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 70%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / -22% / -17%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「塑料」77 家中位:PE 41.1 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 16.9% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 40%。", "国风新材:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 11.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 34.7个百分点。"]}}