{"F": {"ts_code": "000858.SZ", "name": "五粮液", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "白酒Ⅱ", "sw3": "白酒Ⅲ", "ind": "白酒Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19980427", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 71.98, "pe_ttm": 21.3552, "pb": 2.3582, "dv_ttm": 7.1631, "total_mv": 27939814.384, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [74.2, 75.4, 75.4, 75.8, 77.1, 77.5], "rev_series": [573.2, 662.1, 739.7, 832.7, 891.8, 405.3], "np_series": [199.5, 233.8, 266.9, 302.1, 318.5, 89.5], "roe_series": [24.9, 25.3, 25.1, 24.8, 24.2, 7.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 454.4, "np_ttm": 130.8, "ocf_ttm": -35.8, "fcf_ttm": -50.3, "fcf_yield": -1.8, "ocf_yield": -1.3, "gm_median": 75.8, "gm_std": 0.9, "gm_stab": 0.99, "gm_chg_2022": 1.3, "npm_median": 37.2, "roe_median": 24.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 8.1, "fix_assets": 150.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.36, "capex_dep": 2.26, "interest_debt": 3.5, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 34.6, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 70.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -18.2, "np_cagr3": -30.5, "rev_yoy": 20.9, "np_yoy": 89.3, "np_vol": 34.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 77.0, "earn_yield": 4.7, "consensus_n": 17, "fwd_pe": 18.3, "fwd_pe2": 16.4, "fwd_g1": 17.0, "fwd_g2": 11.0, "peg": 1.66, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 25.0], ["酒类产品", 24.0], ["酒类", 24.0], ["酒类产品：五粮液产品", 21.0]], "ret_prev_year": -20.0, "ret_prev2_year": 3.5, "ret_ytd": -30.4, "ret_pivot": -29.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.2, "ret_60": -6.8, "ret_120": -28.3, "ret_250": -42.3, "mdd_250": -45.2, "vol_250": 23.1, "pos_52w": 57.8}, "S": {"duration": 41, "pricing": 81, "hard": 13, "bondness": 74}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 70%、股息率 7.2%、营收 3 年复合 -18.2%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 75.8%),硬资产占比 8%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.8%(经营现金流/市值 -1.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 75.8%,稳定度 99%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.3 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 8%,资本开支/折旧 2.26 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 21.4 倍 粗算,约 77%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -42%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 23%,现价在 52 周高点的 58%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / -7% / -28%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「白酒Ⅱ」19 家中位:PE 26.1 / 股息率 3.7% / 毛利率 74.5% / 固定资产占比 27% / 分红率 60%。", "五粮液:PE 比行业中位低 4.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 3.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 19.0个百分点。"]}}