{"F": {"ts_code": "000856.SZ", "name": "冀东装备", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "其他专用设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19980813", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.7, "pe_ttm": 92.124, "pb": 4.6856, "dv_ttm": 0.4598, "total_mv": 197490.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [4.9, 6.0, 6.7, 7.8, 8.1, 7.5], "rev_series": [26.5, 34.5, 32.0, 29.2, 25.0, 27.8], "np_series": [0.0, 0.2, 0.1, 0.3, 0.2, 0.3], "roe_series": [1.3, 5.8, 3.6, 7.7, 5.3, 6.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 25.9, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_yield": 1.5, "ocf_yield": 1.6, "gm_median": 7.5, "gm_std": 0.8, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": 1.8, "npm_median": 0.9, "roe_median": 5.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 8.9, "fix_assets": 2.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.69, "capex_dep": 0.13, "interest_debt": 1.5, "debt_ebitda": 2.6, "debt_ratio": 81.1, "debt_mv": 7.8, "payout": 34.8, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": -4.6, "np_cagr3": 23.9, "rev_yoy": -13.1, "np_yoy": -42.3, "np_vol": 56.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["机械设备及备件", 39.0], ["土建安装", 24.0], ["矿山工程及恢复绿化", 18.0], ["维修工程", 16.0]], "ret_prev_year": 49.0, "ret_prev2_year": -28.0, "ret_ytd": -14.9, "ret_pivot": 43.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 11.0, "ret_60": 7.1, "ret_120": -20.0, "ret_250": -27.7, "mdd_250": -45.2, "vol_250": 38.8, "pos_52w": 70.5}, "S": {"duration": 90, "pricing": 44, "hard": 14, "bondness": 43}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 92.1 倍,估值里约 95% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 9%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 9%,毛利率近 5 年中位 7.5%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.5%(经营现金流/市值 1.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 7.5%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 9%,资本开支/折旧 0.13 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 92.1 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -28%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 39%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 11% / 7% / -20%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "冀东装备:PE 比行业中位高 49.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 18.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 9.1个百分点。"]}}