{"F": {"ts_code": "000852.SZ", "name": "石化机械", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "能源及重型设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19981126", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.58, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.694, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 533319.7716, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [20.1, 17.0, 15.5, 15.9, 16.4, 14.1], "rev_series": [62.1, 69.5, 77.5, 84.0, 80.4, 72.0], "np_series": [0.1, 0.4, 0.5, 0.9, 1.0, 0.1], "roe_series": [0.4, 2.4, 2.2, 3.1, 3.2, 0.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 68.5, "np_ttm": -0.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_ttm": -0.9, "fcf_yield": -1.8, "ocf_yield": 1.2, "gm_median": 15.9, "gm_std": 1.0, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -4.5, "npm_median": 0.9, "roe_median": 2.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 15.9, "fix_assets": 17.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.69, "capex_dep": 0.66, "interest_debt": 26.1, "debt_ebitda": 6.6, "debt_ratio": 69.2, "debt_mv": 48.9, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -2.4, "np_cagr3": -40.5, "rev_yoy": -10.2, "np_yoy": -122.9, "np_vol": 215.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["石油机械设备", 19.0], ["石油机械", 19.0], ["油气钢管", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 5.4, "ret_prev2_year": 12.2, "ret_ytd": -23.2, "ret_pivot": 7.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.9, "ret_60": 0.9, "ret_120": -30.3, "ret_250": -20.9, "mdd_250": -47.9, "vol_250": 42.7, "pos_52w": 59.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 45, "hard": 25, "bondness": 35}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 0 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 69%,有息负债 26 亿,经营现金流/市值 1.2%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 16%,毛利率近 5 年中位 15.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.8%(经营现金流/市值 1.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.9%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 16%,资本开支/折旧 0.66 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -21%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 43%,现价在 52 周高点的 60%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / 1% / -30%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "石化机械:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 10.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.1个百分点。"]}}