{"F": {"ts_code": "000848.SZ", "name": "承德露露", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "饮料乳品", "sw3": "软饮料", "ind": "饮料乳品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19971113", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.42, "pe_ttm": 12.884, "pb": 2.6631, "dv_ttm": 5.9382, "total_mv": 858840.0842, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [50.1, 46.8, 44.9, 41.5, 40.9, 44.7], "rev_series": [18.6, 25.2, 26.9, 29.5, 32.9, 31.7], "np_series": [4.3, 5.7, 6.0, 6.4, 6.7, 6.3], "roe_series": [20.6, 25.0, 23.5, 21.8, 20.4, 18.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 33.3, "np_ttm": 6.7, "ocf_ttm": 8.6, "fcf_ttm": 6.9, "fcf_yield": 8.0, "ocf_yield": 10.0, "gm_median": 44.7, "gm_std": 2.2, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -5.3, "npm_median": 21.6, "roe_median": 21.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 17.0, "fix_assets": 7.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.66, "capex_dep": 3.86, "interest_debt": 7.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.8, "debt_ratio": 28.9, "debt_mv": 8.1, "payout": 65.6, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 5.6, "np_cagr3": 1.4, "rev_yoy": 11.3, "np_yoy": 15.3, "np_vol": 12.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 61.0, "earn_yield": 7.8, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 12.2, "fwd_pe2": 11.6, "fwd_g1": 6.0, "fwd_g2": 5.0, "peg": 2.44, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["杏仁露系列", 47.0], ["杏仁露", 47.0], ["果仁核桃露", 2.0], ["果仁核桃系列", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": -2.1, "ret_prev2_year": 22.9, "ret_ytd": 5.2, "ret_pivot": 35.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.2, "ret_60": 9.6, "ret_120": 8.5, "ret_250": -1.2, "mdd_250": -20.0, "vol_250": 23.3, "pos_52w": 90.5}, "S": {"duration": 28, "pricing": 59, "hard": 27, "bondness": 70}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 66%、股息率 5.9%、营收 3 年复合 5.6%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.8 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 44.7%),硬资产占比 17%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 8.0%(经营现金流/市值 10.0%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 44.7%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 17%,资本开支/折旧 3.86 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 12.9 倍 粗算,约 61%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -1%,最大回撤 -20%,年化波动 23%,现价在 52 周高点的 90%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / 10% / 8%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「饮料乳品」27 家中位:PE 29.0 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 29.2% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 52%。", "承德露露:PE 比行业中位低 16.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 4.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 15.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 12.7个百分点。"]}}