{"F": {"ts_code": "000838.SZ", "name": "*ST发展", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "房地产", "sw2": "房地产开发", "sw3": "住宅开发", "ind": "房地产开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19970626", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 2.79, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": null, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 307028.9538, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [17.5, 12.9, 18.6, 11.4, -0.3, 42.4], "rev_series": [60.5, 50.5, 42.0, 40.2, 8.3, 2.8], "np_series": [1.2, -7.4, -2.3, -2.5, -2.6, -6.3], "roe_series": [5.9, -46.6, -21.1, -30.4, -47.3, -571.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1.7, "np_ttm": -6.8, "ocf_ttm": -0.5, "fcf_ttm": -0.5, "fcf_yield": -1.6, "ocf_yield": -1.6, "gm_median": 12.9, "gm_std": 14.1, "gm_stab": -0.09, "gm_chg_2022": 1.1, "npm_median": -17.8, "roe_median": -46.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 6.6, "fix_assets": 1.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": 0.07, "interest_debt": 3.3, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 116.2, "debt_mv": 10.7, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -59.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -64.3, "np_yoy": -1028.8, "np_vol": 294.5, "loss_years": 5, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["环保板块收入", 75.0], ["房地产销售", 12.0], ["房地产", 12.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 11.6, "ret_prev2_year": -24.5, "ret_ytd": -9.7, "ret_pivot": 22.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 11.6, "ret_60": 67.1, "ret_120": 18.7, "ret_250": -1.8, "mdd_250": -63.8, "vol_250": 62.4, "pos_52w": 70.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 15, "hard": 11, "bondness": 23}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -6.8 亿,近 5 年亏损 5 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 116%,有息负债 3 亿,经营现金流/市值 -1.6%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 7%,毛利率近 5 年中位 12.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.6%(经营现金流/市值 -1.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 12.9%,稳定度 -9%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 7%,资本开支/折旧 0.07 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -2%,最大回撤 -64%,年化波动 62%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 12% / 67% / 19%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「房地产开发」83 家中位:PE 26.0 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 21.1% / 固定资产占比 2% / 分红率 36%。", "*ST发展:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 8.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 4.6个百分点。"]}}