{"F": {"ts_code": "000837.SZ", "name": "秦川机床", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "机床工具", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19980928", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.86, "pe_ttm": 183.3121, "pb": 2.0352, "dv_ttm": 0.3043, "total_mv": 1008821.8574, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [20.2, 18.5, 18.9, 17.8, 16.2, 17.7], "rev_series": [41.0, 50.5, 41.0, 37.6, 38.6, 40.9], "np_series": [1.5, 2.8, 2.8, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5], "roe_series": [7.0, 10.4, 8.2, 1.3, 1.1, 1.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 43.2, "np_ttm": 0.6, "ocf_ttm": 3.4, "fcf_ttm": 2.5, "fcf_yield": 2.5, "ocf_yield": 3.4, "gm_median": 17.8, "gm_std": 0.9, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -1.3, "npm_median": 1.9, "roe_median": 1.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 35.9, "fix_assets": 36.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.04, "capex_dep": 0.42, "interest_debt": 6.4, "debt_ebitda": 2.7, "debt_ratio": 44.3, "debt_mv": 6.4, "payout": 56.0, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -0.1, "np_cagr3": -42.3, "rev_yoy": 10.8, "np_yoy": 4.8, "np_vol": 52.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.5, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 109.6, "fwd_pe2": 89.6, "fwd_g1": 67.0, "fwd_g2": 22.0, "peg": 4.98, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 42.0], ["机床类", 21.0], ["零部件类", 15.0], ["零部件", 15.0]], "ret_prev_year": 44.1, "ret_prev2_year": -16.6, "ret_ytd": -23.4, "ret_pivot": 43.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.0, "ret_60": -19.6, "ret_120": -18.7, "ret_250": -25.8, "mdd_250": -45.4, "vol_250": 42.9, "pos_52w": 62.8}, "S": {"duration": 99, "pricing": 49, "hard": 57, "bondness": 50}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 36%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 17.8%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.3 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 2.7 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 36%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 17.8%,稳定度 95%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.5%(经营现金流/市值 3.4%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.8%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 36%,资本开支/折旧 0.42 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 183.3 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -26%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 43%,现价在 52 周高点的 63%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -20% / -19%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "秦川机床:PE 比行业中位高 132.7倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 10.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 15.1个百分点。"]}}