{"F": {"ts_code": "000833.SZ", "name": "粤桂股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "综合", "sw2": "综合Ⅱ", "sw3": "综合Ⅲ", "ind": "综合Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19981111", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 19.84, "pe_ttm": 18.6775, "pb": 3.8047, "dv_ttm": 0.851, "total_mv": 1696552.128, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [4.9, 28.9, 24.4, 14.0, 27.6, 35.5], "rev_series": [31.9, 30.6, 27.1, 33.6, 28.0, 30.6], "np_series": [0.6, 2.6, 3.0, 0.7, 2.8, 4.8], "roe_series": [2.2, 8.7, 9.2, 2.0, 8.1, 12.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 40.4, "np_ttm": 9.1, "ocf_ttm": 4.4, "fcf_ttm": -6.5, "fcf_yield": -3.8, "ocf_yield": 2.6, "gm_median": 27.6, "gm_std": 7.0, "gm_stab": 0.75, "gm_chg_2022": 19.5, "npm_median": 11.1, "roe_median": 8.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 34.2, "fix_assets": 28.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.8, "capex_dep": 7.12, "interest_debt": 24.8, "debt_ebitda": 1.9, "debt_ratio": 43.4, "debt_mv": 14.6, "payout": 35.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 4.2, "np_cagr3": 17.6, "rev_yoy": 72.4, "np_yoy": 182.8, "np_vol": 161.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 73.0, "earn_yield": 5.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["硫精矿", 36.0], ["银粉", 16.0], ["硫酸", 10.0], ["浆", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 74.2, "ret_prev2_year": 130.2, "ret_ytd": 2.9, "ret_pivot": 324.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.9, "ret_60": -25.6, "ret_120": -28.7, "ret_250": 55.5, "mdd_250": -40.6, "vol_250": 61.1, "pos_52w": 62.9}, "S": {"duration": 37, "pricing": 51, "hard": 55, "bondness": 39}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 18.7 倍、股息率 0.9%、毛利率近 5 年中位 27.6%、固定资产占比 34%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.9 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 34%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 27.6%,稳定度 75%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.8%(经营现金流/市值 2.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 27.6%,稳定度 75%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 19.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 34%,资本开支/折旧 7.12 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 18.7 倍 粗算,约 73%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 56%,最大回撤 -41%,年化波动 61%,现价在 52 周高点的 63%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -26% / -29%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「综合Ⅱ」20 家中位:PE 46.7 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 15.5% / 固定资产占比 12% / 分红率 35%。", "粤桂股份:PE 比行业中位低 28.0倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 12.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 21.8个百分点。"]}}