{"F": {"ts_code": "000831.SZ", "name": "中国稀土", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "小金属", "sw3": "稀土", "ind": "小金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19980911", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 56.21, "pe_ttm": 240.7034, "pb": 11.7829, "dv_ttm": 0.0516, "total_mv": 5965122.1168, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [16.9, 12.7, 17.1, 22.4, 15.8, 16.7], "rev_series": [16.6, 29.7, 37.9, 39.9, 30.3, 31.8], "np_series": [2.8, 2.0, 4.2, 4.2, -2.9, 1.7], "roe_series": [11.9, 7.7, 14.8, 10.6, -6.0, 3.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 29.5, "np_ttm": 2.5, "ocf_ttm": 12.2, "fcf_ttm": 11.4, "fcf_yield": 1.9, "ocf_yield": 2.0, "gm_median": 16.7, "gm_std": 3.1, "gm_stab": 0.81, "gm_chg_2022": 0.2, "npm_median": 6.9, "roe_median": 7.7, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 9.0, "fix_assets": 5.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 11.78, "capex_dep": 1.56, "interest_debt": 3.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.7, "debt_ratio": 11.9, "debt_mv": 0.5, "payout": 18.4, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -5.6, "np_cagr3": -25.4, "rev_yoy": -12.2, "np_yoy": 46.5, "np_vol": 118.0, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.4, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 140.5, "fwd_pe2": 119.6, "fwd_g1": 71.0, "fwd_g2": 17.0, "peg": 8.26, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["稀土氧化物", 64.0], ["稀土金属及合金", 18.0], ["稀土金属", 18.0], ["技术服务收入", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 65.6, "ret_prev2_year": 1.7, "ret_ytd": 21.1, "ret_pivot": 151.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.7, "ret_60": 4.6, "ret_120": 6.1, "ret_250": 11.5, "mdd_250": -32.1, "vol_250": 57.3, "pos_52w": 84.8}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 70, "hard": 14, "bondness": 29}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["商品定价"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 240.7 倍,估值里约 98% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 9%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(4 篇研报)前瞻 PE 140.5 倍,次年 119.6 倍,PEG 8.26。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 16.7%),硬资产占比 9%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.9%(经营现金流/市值 2.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.7%,稳定度 81%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 9%,资本开支/折旧 1.56 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 240.7 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 12%,最大回撤 -32%,年化波动 57%,现价在 52 周高点的 85%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / 5% / 6%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「小金属」29 家中位:PE 36.9 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 18.3% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 35%。", "中国稀土:PE 比行业中位高 203.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 12.7个百分点。"]}}