{"F": {"ts_code": "000830.SZ", "name": "鲁西化工", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学原料", "sw3": "煤化工", "ind": "化学原料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19980807", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.74, "pe_ttm": 21.7054, "pb": 1.2412, "dv_ttm": 1.5699, "total_mv": 2426102.406, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [15.8, 30.4, 20.0, 13.4, 14.8, 11.0], "rev_series": [175.9, 317.9, 303.6, 253.6, 297.6, 291.4], "np_series": [8.2, 46.2, 31.6, 8.2, 20.3, 9.1], "roe_series": [6.5, 28.7, 17.9, 4.8, 11.4, 4.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 297.6, "np_ttm": 11.2, "ocf_ttm": 26.3, "fcf_ttm": 6.9, "fcf_yield": 2.8, "ocf_yield": 10.9, "gm_median": 14.8, "gm_std": 6.9, "gm_stab": 0.53, "gm_chg_2022": 4.2, "npm_median": 6.8, "roe_median": 11.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 73.6, "fix_assets": 259.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.24, "capex_dep": 0.81, "interest_debt": 114.1, "debt_ebitda": 2.7, "debt_ratio": 44.2, "debt_mv": 47.0, "payout": 32.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -1.4, "np_cagr3": -34.0, "rev_yoy": 4.2, "np_yoy": 27.6, "np_vol": 201.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 77.0, "earn_yield": 4.6, "consensus_n": 10, "fwd_pe": 12.8, "fwd_pe2": 10.7, "fwd_g1": 69.0, "fwd_g2": 20.0, "peg": 0.64, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 35.0], ["新材料化工", 23.0], ["化工新材料产品", 23.0], ["基础化工产品", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 46.9, "ret_prev2_year": 19.1, "ret_ytd": -22.2, "ret_pivot": 35.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.2, "ret_60": 5.0, "ret_120": -34.8, "ret_250": -2.5, "mdd_250": -43.6, "vol_250": 50.0, "pos_52w": 62.9}, "S": {"duration": 42, "pricing": 37, "hard": 100, "bondness": 49}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["成长兑现", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 74%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 14.8%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 4.2 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 2.7 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 74%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 14.8%,稳定度 53%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.8%(经营现金流/市值 10.9%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 14.8%,稳定度 53%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 4.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 74%,资本开支/折旧 0.81 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 21.7 倍 粗算,约 77%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -2%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 50%,现价在 52 周高点的 63%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -0% / 5% / -35%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学原料」59 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 16.8% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 40%。", "鲁西化工:PE 比行业中位低 14.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 26.2个百分点。"]}}