{"F": {"ts_code": "000829.SZ", "name": "天音控股", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "商贸零售", "sw2": "专业连锁Ⅱ", "sw3": "专业连锁Ⅲ", "ind": "专业连锁Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19971202", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.0, "pe_ttm": 162.285, "pb": 3.1497, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 922590.45, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [2.9, 3.3, 3.6, 2.8, 3.0, 3.1], "rev_series": [597.8, 710.0, 764.3, 948.2, 840.4, 905.7], "np_series": [1.9, 2.1, 1.1, 0.8, 0.3, -0.2], "roe_series": [7.5, 8.1, 4.2, 3.0, 1.0, -0.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1022.4, "np_ttm": 0.6, "ocf_ttm": -16.1, "fcf_ttm": -19.2, "fcf_yield": -20.8, "ocf_yield": -17.4, "gm_median": 3.1, "gm_std": 0.3, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": 0.7, "npm_median": 0.1, "roe_median": 3.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 3.3, "fix_assets": 9.9, "goodwill_ratio": 3.0, "pb_calc": 3.15, "capex_dep": 20.5, "interest_debt": 160.9, "debt_ebitda": 22.5, "debt_ratio": 89.9, "debt_mv": 174.4, "payout": 31.8, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 5.8, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 25.2, "np_yoy": 125.3, "np_vol": 60.6, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 41.0], ["通信产品销售", 23.0], ["零售电商", 16.0], ["电商及零售", 16.0]], "ret_prev_year": -17.2, "ret_prev2_year": 38.6, "ret_ytd": -17.5, "ret_pivot": 2.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.3, "ret_60": 1.7, "ret_120": -17.2, "ret_250": -15.3, "mdd_250": -41.6, "vol_250": 40.4, "pos_52w": 74.1}, "S": {"duration": 98, "pricing": 42, "hard": 5, "bondness": 40}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 162.3 倍、股息率 —、毛利率近 5 年中位 3.1%、固定资产占比 3%、有息负债/EBITDA 22.5 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 3%,毛利率近 5 年中位 3.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -20.8%(经营现金流/市值 -17.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 3.1%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 3%,资本开支/折旧 20.50 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 162.3 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -15%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 40%,现价在 52 周高点的 74%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / 2% / -17%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专业连锁Ⅱ」7 家中位:PE 28.8 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 15.2% / 固定资产占比 4% / 分红率 46%。", "天音控股:PE 比行业中位高 133.5倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 12.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.1个百分点。"]}}