{"F": {"ts_code": "000828.SZ", "name": "东莞控股", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "铁路公路", "sw3": "高速公路", "ind": "铁路公路", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19970617", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.07, "pe_ttm": 12.4393, "pb": 1.0091, "dv_ttm": 4.717, "total_mv": 1046793.619, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [59.4, 19.3, 23.3, 25.0, 65.5, 68.0], "rev_series": [12.6, 53.2, 41.0, 46.9, 16.9, 15.5], "np_series": [9.1, 9.3, 8.3, 6.7, 9.6, 8.2], "roe_series": [12.2, 11.4, 8.7, 6.2, 9.2, 8.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 14.9, "np_ttm": 8.4, "ocf_ttm": 25.2, "fcf_ttm": 10.7, "fcf_yield": 10.3, "ocf_yield": 24.0, "gm_median": 25.0, "gm_std": 21.7, "gm_stab": 0.13, "gm_chg_2022": -36.1, "npm_median": 20.2, "roe_median": 8.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 30.7, "fix_assets": 48.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.01, "capex_dep": 6.85, "interest_debt": 44.6, "debt_ebitda": 5.1, "debt_ratio": 33.2, "debt_mv": 42.6, "payout": 55.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -27.7, "np_cagr3": -0.2, "rev_yoy": -8.5, "np_yoy": 3.4, "np_vol": 22.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 60.0, "earn_yield": 8.0, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 11.1, "fwd_pe2": 11.1, "fwd_g1": 12.0, "fwd_g2": 1.0, "peg": 11.1, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["通行费收入", 82.0], ["保理业务收入", 7.0], ["新能源汽车充电业务收入", 5.0], ["其他非主营业务收入", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 5.5, "ret_prev2_year": 4.5, "ret_ytd": -3.5, "ret_pivot": 27.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.3, "ret_60": 3.0, "ret_120": -4.9, "ret_250": -9.1, "mdd_250": -21.2, "vol_250": 21.5, "pos_52w": 84.8}, "S": {"duration": 27, "pricing": 21, "hard": 49, "bondness": 83}, "label": "债券代理股", "tags": ["现金流红利", "资本开支扩张期", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["现金流像票息:近 5 年净利润增速波动 23个百分点,营收 3 年复合 -27.7%,利润在窄区间里波动。", "分红率 55%、股息率 4.7%,每年派多少钱几乎可以预测。", "杠杆:有息负债 45 亿,有息负债/EBITDA 5.1 倍,资产负债率 33%。利率升财务费用直接吃利润。", "定价方式是利差:市场看的是股息率 4.7% 比十年期国债高多少。PE 12.4 倍 倒过来就是 8.0% 的盈利收益率,这是债的定价。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 31%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 25.0%,稳定度 13%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。 另外它被市场当长债替代品交易:利率上行时跟长债一起跌,不跟硬资产一起涨,这个标签贴错会亏钱。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期跟长债走,承压;国内降息周期反而受益。拿它盯国内十年期国债收益率,不要盯黄金和美元。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 10.3%(经营现金流/市值 24.0%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 25.0%,稳定度 13%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -36.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 31%,资本开支/折旧 6.85 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 12.4 倍 粗算,约 60%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -9%,最大回撤 -21%,年化波动 22%,现价在 52 周高点的 85%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / 3% / -5%。 债券代理股的波动应该低;符合。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「铁路公路」33 家中位:PE 15.4 / 股息率 3.2% / 毛利率 32.2% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 48%。", "东莞控股:PE 比行业中位低 3.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 7.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 9.7个百分点。"]}}