{"F": {"ts_code": "000825.SZ", "name": "太钢不锈", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "钢铁", "sw2": "特钢Ⅱ", "sw3": "特钢Ⅲ", "ind": "特钢Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19981021", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.52, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 0.6123, "dv_ttm": 0.2557, "total_mv": 2005079.2256, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [11.3, 13.4, 3.0, 0.7, 1.2, 1.9], "rev_series": [674.2, 1014.4, 976.5, 1056.2, 1003.8, 903.8], "np_series": [17.4, 63.1, 1.5, -10.8, -9.8, 0.5], "roe_series": [5.4, 18.6, 0.4, -3.2, -3.0, 0.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 918.5, "np_ttm": -2.1, "ocf_ttm": 22.8, "fcf_ttm": 5.8, "fcf_yield": 2.9, "ocf_yield": 11.4, "gm_median": 1.9, "gm_std": 4.7, "gm_stab": -1.49, "gm_chg_2022": -8.3, "npm_median": 0.1, "roe_median": 0.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 60.9, "fix_assets": 386.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.61, "capex_dep": 0.53, "interest_debt": 60.3, "debt_ebitda": 1.8, "debt_ratio": 44.5, "debt_mv": 30.1, "payout": 100.0, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -2.5, "np_cagr3": -30.5, "rev_yoy": 3.2, "np_yoy": -65.5, "np_vol": 369.2, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["不锈钢材", 34.0], ["普通钢材", 11.0], ["普通钢坯", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 40.6, "ret_prev2_year": -6.7, "ret_ytd": -27.9, "ret_pivot": 15.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.6, "ret_60": -2.8, "ret_120": -28.9, "ret_250": -16.4, "mdd_250": -40.1, "vol_250": 33.8, "pos_52w": 63.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 5, "hard": 97, "bondness": 62}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 61%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 1.9%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.3 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 1.8 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 61%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 1.9%,稳定度 -149%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.9%(经营现金流/市值 11.4%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 1.9%,稳定度 -149%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 61%,资本开支/折旧 0.53 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -16%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 34%,现价在 52 周高点的 63%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / -3% / -29%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「特钢Ⅱ」12 家中位:PE 15.6 / 股息率 3.2% / 毛利率 11.3% / 固定资产占比 37% / 分红率 50%。", "太钢不锈:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 2.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 9.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 23.5个百分点。"]}}