{"F": {"ts_code": "000822.SZ", "name": "山东海化", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学原料", "sw3": "纯碱", "ind": "化学原料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19980703", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.43, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.1112, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 396525.7117, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [5.3, 20.8, 20.0, 22.9, 14.0, 8.9], "rev_series": [36.9, 58.5, 97.1, 85.3, 60.1, 47.5], "np_series": [-2.5, 6.0, 11.1, 10.4, 0.4, -13.9], "roe_series": [-7.9, 18.4, 28.8, 22.4, 0.8, -30.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 47.4, "np_ttm": -14.1, "ocf_ttm": -14.6, "fcf_ttm": -15.2, "fcf_yield": -38.3, "ocf_yield": -36.8, "gm_median": 20.0, "gm_std": 5.2, "gm_stab": 0.74, "gm_chg_2022": 14.7, "npm_median": 10.3, "roe_median": 18.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 25.3, "fix_assets": 22.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.11, "capex_dep": 0.2, "interest_debt": 24.7, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 60.0, "debt_mv": 62.2, "payout": 8.5, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -21.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -0.4, "np_yoy": -9.1, "np_vol": 1490.9, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["纯碱", 65.0], ["烧碱", 11.0], ["小苏打", 8.0], ["溴素", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": -7.6, "ret_prev2_year": -15.7, "ret_ytd": -15.6, "ret_pivot": -8.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.0, "ret_60": -3.5, "ret_120": -34.7, "ret_250": -25.9, "mdd_250": -46.0, "vol_250": 39.1, "pos_52w": 61.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 47, "hard": 40, "bondness": 26}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -14.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 60%,有息负债 25 亿,经营现金流/市值 -36.8%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 25%,毛利率近 5 年中位 20.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -38.3%(经营现金流/市值 -36.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 20.0%,稳定度 74%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 14.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 25%,资本开支/折旧 0.20 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -26%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 39%,现价在 52 周高点的 61%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / -4% / -35%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学原料」59 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 16.8% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 40%。", "山东海化:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 22.1个百分点。"]}}