{"F": {"ts_code": "000821.SZ", "name": "ST京机", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "光伏设备", "sw3": "光伏加工设备", "ind": "光伏设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19980626", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.44, "pe_ttm": 81.6674, "pb": 1.1105, "dv_ttm": 0.4391, "total_mv": 463418.8512, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [20.0, 19.6, 21.5, 21.0, 18.6, 20.2], "rev_series": [30.6, 40.9, 48.7, 72.1, 87.2, 71.0], "np_series": [0.5, 1.5, 3.0, 3.4, 4.3, 2.0], "roe_series": [2.4, 5.6, 9.7, 9.7, 11.2, 4.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 56.4, "np_ttm": 0.6, "ocf_ttm": 1.8, "fcf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_yield": 0.2, "ocf_yield": 3.9, "gm_median": 20.2, "gm_std": 1.0, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": 1.4, "npm_median": 5.5, "roe_median": 9.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 10.5, "fix_assets": 13.7, "goodwill_ratio": 5.0, "pb_calc": 1.11, "capex_dep": 1.38, "interest_debt": 24.3, "debt_ebitda": 7.9, "debt_ratio": 66.6, "debt_mv": 52.4, "payout": 10.3, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 13.4, "np_cagr3": -13.2, "rev_yoy": -40.0, "np_yoy": -68.4, "np_vol": 78.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["光伏设备", 41.0], ["锂电设备", 20.0], ["包装设备", 17.0], ["其他主营业务", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 8.8, "ret_prev2_year": -21.4, "ret_ytd": -44.6, "ret_pivot": -23.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.3, "ret_60": -16.5, "ret_120": -45.9, "ret_250": -39.0, "mdd_250": -58.9, "vol_250": 44.0, "pos_52w": 45.9}, "S": {"duration": 87, "pricing": 52, "hard": 17, "bondness": 28}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 81.7 倍,估值里约 94% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 10%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 10%,毛利率近 5 年中位 20.2%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.2%(经营现金流/市值 3.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 20.2%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 10%,资本开支/折旧 1.38 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 81.7 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -39%,最大回撤 -59%,年化波动 44%,现价在 52 周高点的 46%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -16% / -46%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「光伏设备」73 家中位:PE 41.0 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 23% / 分红率 29%。", "ST京机:PE 比行业中位高 40.7倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 12.1个百分点。"]}}