{"F": {"ts_code": "000818.SZ", "name": "航锦科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学原料", "sw3": "氯碱", "ind": "化学原料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19971017", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.24, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.6875, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 807840.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.1, 28.1, 16.6, 18.7, 13.0, 16.8], "rev_series": [35.4, 48.6, 42.9, 36.7, 41.7, 41.2], "np_series": [2.4, 7.3, 2.3, 1.3, -9.8, -1.5], "roe_series": [8.5, 23.2, 6.5, 3.5, -32.7, -6.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 33.5, "np_ttm": -1.2, "ocf_ttm": 7.4, "fcf_ttm": 15.4, "fcf_yield": 19.0, "ocf_yield": 9.1, "gm_median": 16.8, "gm_std": 5.1, "gm_stab": 0.7, "gm_chg_2022": -4.5, "npm_median": 2.9, "roe_median": 3.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 35.1, "fix_assets": 24.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.69, "capex_dep": -2.04, "interest_debt": 24.9, "debt_ebitda": 6.3, "debt_ratio": 67.1, "debt_mv": 30.8, "payout": 26.3, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -1.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -34.7, "np_yoy": 263.3, "np_vol": 377.2, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["液碱", 13.0], ["化工-液碱", 13.0], ["环氧丙烷", 9.0], ["化工-环氧丙烷", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 1.0, "ret_prev2_year": -39.0, "ret_ytd": -36.6, "ret_pivot": -18.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -9.3, "ret_60": -1.4, "ret_120": -48.1, "ret_250": -54.1, "mdd_250": -57.0, "vol_250": 53.9, "pos_52w": 45.0}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 37, "hard": 56, "bondness": 44}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 35%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 16.8%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.5 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 6.3 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 35%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 16.8%,稳定度 70%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 19.0%(经营现金流/市值 9.1%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.8%,稳定度 70%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 35%,资本开支/折旧 -2.04 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -54%,最大回撤 -57%,年化波动 54%,现价在 52 周高点的 45%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -9% / -1% / -48%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学原料」59 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 16.8% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 40%。", "航锦科技:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 与行业中位持平;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 12.3个百分点。"]}}