{"F": {"ts_code": "000816.SZ", "name": "智慧农业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "底盘与发动机系统", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19970818", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 2.95, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.1548, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 426868.9235, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [13.4, 9.4, 15.1, 14.9, 21.5, 19.8], "rev_series": [17.4, 22.8, 12.1, 13.0, 14.5, 12.5], "np_series": [0.6, 0.5, -0.3, -0.7, -0.5, -0.7], "roe_series": [2.6, 2.2, -1.2, -3.2, -2.3, -3.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 12.9, "np_ttm": -0.7, "ocf_ttm": -0.4, "fcf_ttm": -1.8, "fcf_yield": -4.2, "ocf_yield": -0.9, "gm_median": 15.1, "gm_std": 4.3, "gm_stab": 0.72, "gm_chg_2022": 1.7, "npm_median": -0.7, "roe_median": -2.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 27.8, "fix_assets": 9.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.15, "capex_dep": 2.42, "interest_debt": 0.7, "debt_ebitda": 0.5, "debt_ratio": 27.6, "debt_mv": 1.5, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 1.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 6.8, "np_yoy": -42.0, "np_vol": 75.8, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["动力及终端产品", 60.0], ["金属矿产品", 23.0], ["零配件及其他", 8.0], ["零部件", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 21.9, "ret_prev2_year": 0.0, "ret_ytd": -19.8, "ret_pivot": 64.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 11.3, "ret_60": 19.4, "ret_120": -22.0, "ret_250": -8.7, "mdd_250": -46.7, "vol_250": 40.6, "pos_52w": 69.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 42, "hard": 44, "bondness": 20}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.7 亿,近 5 年亏损 4 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 28%,有息负债 1 亿,经营现金流/市值 -0.9%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 28%,毛利率近 5 年中位 15.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.2%(经营现金流/市值 -0.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.1%,稳定度 72%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 28%,资本开支/折旧 2.42 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -9%,最大回撤 -47%,年化波动 41%,现价在 52 周高点的 69%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 11% / 19% / -22%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "智慧农业:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 2.3个百分点。"]}}