{"F": {"ts_code": "000815.SZ", "name": "美利云", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "IT服务Ⅱ", "sw3": "IT服务Ⅲ", "ind": "IT服务Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19980609", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 16.18, "pe_ttm": 141.4401, "pb": 7.9363, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1124935.534, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [11.4, 7.6, 2.4, 8.4, 11.5, 44.0], "rev_series": [11.6, 12.3, 11.0, 10.8, 9.1, 3.4], "np_series": [0.5, -0.2, -2.3, -0.2, -5.5, 0.7], "roe_series": [2.3, -0.8, -11.6, -0.9, -34.5, 4.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.4, "np_ttm": 0.8, "ocf_ttm": 3.1, "fcf_ttm": 2.6, "fcf_yield": 2.3, "ocf_yield": 2.8, "gm_median": 8.4, "gm_std": 14.9, "gm_stab": -0.77, "gm_chg_2022": -9.0, "npm_median": -1.5, "roe_median": -0.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 41.8, "fix_assets": 10.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 7.94, "capex_dep": 0.71, "interest_debt": 5.6, "debt_ebitda": 3.7, "debt_ratio": 40.9, "debt_mv": 4.9, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -32.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -0.9, "np_yoy": 64.9, "np_vol": 1187.1, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["云业务", 46.0], ["光伏发电", 4.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": -2.3, "ret_prev2_year": 3.5, "ret_ytd": 44.6, "ret_pivot": 97.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -10.3, "ret_60": 3.3, "ret_120": -4.6, "ret_250": 10.5, "mdd_250": -47.2, "vol_250": 66.7, "pos_52w": 70.5}, "S": {"duration": 97, "pricing": 8, "hard": 67, "bondness": 31}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 42%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 8.4%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.0 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 3.7 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 42%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 8.4%,稳定度 -77%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.3%(经营现金流/市值 2.8%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 8.4%,稳定度 -77%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 42%,资本开支/折旧 0.71 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 141.4 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 10%,最大回撤 -47%,年化波动 67%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -10% / 3% / -5%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「IT服务Ⅱ」134 家中位:PE 84.0 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 28.1% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 35%。", "美利云:PE 比行业中位高 57.4倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 19.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 33.2个百分点。"]}}