{"F": {"ts_code": "000807.SZ", "name": "云铝股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "工业金属", "sw3": "铝", "ind": "工业金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19980408", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 26.95, "pe_ttm": 8.5193, "pb": 2.4491, "dv_ttm": 2.5937, "total_mv": 9346145.193, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [14.2, 20.4, 14.9, 15.8, 13.2, 16.8], "rev_series": [295.7, 416.7, 484.6, 426.7, 544.5, 600.4], "np_series": [9.0, 33.2, 45.7, 39.6, 44.1, 60.5], "roe_series": [7.9, 22.1, 22.5, 16.5, 16.3, 20.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 659.5, "np_ttm": 109.7, "ocf_ttm": 130.9, "fcf_ttm": 126.4, "fcf_yield": 13.5, "ocf_yield": 14.0, "gm_median": 15.8, "gm_std": 2.4, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": 0.7, "npm_median": 10.9, "roe_median": 20.1, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 39.6, "fix_assets": 199.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.45, "capex_dep": 0.26, "interest_debt": 21.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 15.8, "debt_mv": 2.2, "payout": 32.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 7.4, "np_cagr3": 9.8, "rev_yoy": 20.3, "np_yoy": 177.6, "np_vol": 101.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 41.0, "earn_yield": 11.7, "consensus_n": 20, "fwd_pe": 6.9, "fwd_pe2": 6.4, "fwd_g1": 23.0, "fwd_g2": 9.0, "peg": 0.77, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["电解铝", 29.0], ["铝加工产品", 20.0], ["其他主营业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 156.6, "ret_prev2_year": 16.3, "ret_ytd": -17.0, "ret_pivot": 139.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.7, "ret_60": -1.0, "ret_120": -21.6, "ret_250": 55.4, "mdd_250": -40.6, "vol_250": 51.5, "pos_52w": 73.6}, "S": {"duration": 19, "pricing": 70, "hard": 63, "bondness": 40}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["商品定价", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 200 亿,占总资产 40%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权来自商品本身:铝 的价格是通胀的组成部分,利润是商品价格的函数。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 13.5%,股息率 2.6%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 41%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 40%)和定价权(商品价格)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 13.5%(经营现金流/市值 14.0%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.8%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 40%,资本开支/折旧 0.26 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 8.5 倍 粗算,约 41%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 55%,最大回撤 -41%,年化波动 52%,现价在 52 周高点的 74%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / -1% / -22%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年已经跑过,加仓看信号。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工业金属」60 家中位:PE 20.5 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 10.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 32%。", "云铝股份:PE 比行业中位低 12.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 12.1个百分点。"]}}