{"F": {"ts_code": "000803.SZ", "name": "山高环能", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "环保", "sw2": "环境治理", "sw3": "固废治理", "ind": "环境治理", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19980303", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.45, "pe_ttm": 63.358, "pb": 2.2993, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 347390.5945, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [39.7, 29.8, 19.3, 14.7, 19.2, 24.4], "rev_series": [3.5, 8.3, 17.9, 21.0, 14.5, 14.5], "np_series": [0.5, 0.8, 0.8, 0.1, 0.1, 0.3], "roe_series": [18.5, 8.5, 6.3, 0.6, 0.9, 2.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 14.7, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 4.2, "fcf_ttm": 2.5, "fcf_yield": 7.3, "ocf_yield": 12.1, "gm_median": 19.3, "gm_std": 5.2, "gm_stab": 0.73, "gm_chg_2022": -20.4, "npm_median": 1.7, "roe_median": 2.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 19.8, "fix_assets": 10.3, "goodwill_ratio": 11.0, "pb_calc": 2.3, "capex_dep": 1.55, "interest_debt": 23.3, "debt_ebitda": 4.6, "debt_ratio": 70.6, "debt_mv": 67.0, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -6.9, "np_cagr3": -29.1, "rev_yoy": 2.6, "np_yoy": 60.5, "np_vol": 74.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.6, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 23.4, "fwd_pe2": 14.3, "fwd_g1": 171.0, "fwd_g2": 63.0, "peg": 0.37, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 40.0], ["油脂产品加工和销售", 20.0], ["环保无害化处理", 10.0], ["环保处理业务", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 39.4, "ret_prev2_year": -11.7, "ret_ytd": 4.2, "ret_pivot": 117.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.1, "ret_60": 2.1, "ret_120": -23.7, "ret_250": -0.1, "mdd_250": -43.0, "vol_250": 47.7, "pos_52w": 70.9}, "S": {"duration": 79, "pricing": 39, "hard": 32, "bondness": 34}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["成长兑现", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 63.4 倍,估值里约 92% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 20%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(5 篇研报)前瞻 PE 23.4 倍,次年 14.3 倍,PEG 0.37。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 20%,毛利率近 5 年中位 19.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 7.3%(经营现金流/市值 12.1%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.3%,稳定度 73%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -20.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 20%,资本开支/折旧 1.55 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 63.4 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -0%,最大回撤 -43%,年化波动 48%,现价在 52 周高点的 71%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / 2% / -24%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「环境治理」107 家中位:PE 26.1 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 27.6% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 38%。", "山高环能:PE 比行业中位高 37.3倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 8.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 5.9个百分点。"]}}