{"F": {"ts_code": "000801.SZ", "name": "四川九洲", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "家用电器", "sw2": "黑色家电", "sw3": "其他黑色家电", "ind": "黑色家电", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19980506", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.68, "pe_ttm": 63.2084, "pb": 4.4169, "dv_ttm": 0.1577, "total_mv": 1288699.8464, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.3, 20.0, 22.3, 23.8, 21.1, 20.6], "rev_series": [33.0, 35.4, 38.8, 38.3, 41.8, 41.1], "np_series": [0.8, 1.4, 2.0, 2.0, 1.9, 1.8], "roe_series": [3.1, 5.5, 7.1, 6.9, 6.5, 5.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 48.5, "np_ttm": 1.9, "ocf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_ttm": -1.0, "fcf_yield": -0.8, "ocf_yield": 0.8, "gm_median": 21.1, "gm_std": 1.4, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": 1.0, "npm_median": 5.8, "roe_median": 6.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 6.9, "fix_assets": 6.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.42, "capex_dep": 2.65, "interest_debt": 13.8, "debt_ebitda": 3.8, "debt_ratio": 65.1, "debt_mv": 10.7, "payout": 51.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 1.9, "np_cagr3": -3.3, "rev_yoy": 19.8, "np_yoy": 43.8, "np_vol": 36.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.6, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 57.6, "fwd_pe2": 44.8, "fwd_g1": 10.0, "fwd_g2": 29.0, "peg": 1.99, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["智能终端产品", 29.0], ["空管产品", 10.0], ["微波射频", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 19.4, "ret_prev2_year": 89.7, "ret_ytd": -25.1, "ret_pivot": 56.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 11.4, "ret_60": 6.8, "ret_120": -15.9, "ret_250": -29.1, "mdd_250": -42.3, "vol_250": 40.7, "pos_52w": 68.6}, "S": {"duration": 79, "pricing": 52, "hard": 11, "bondness": 48}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 63.2 倍,估值里约 92% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 7%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(3 篇研报)前瞻 PE 57.6 倍,次年 44.8 倍,PEG 1.99。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 7%,毛利率近 5 年中位 21.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.8%(经营现金流/市值 0.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 21.1%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 7%,资本开支/折旧 2.65 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 63.2 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -29%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 41%,现价在 52 周高点的 69%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 11% / 7% / -16%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「黑色家电」9 家中位:PE 38.9 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 16.7% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 51%。", "四川九洲:PE 比行业中位高 24.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 4.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 10.9个百分点。"]}}