{"F": {"ts_code": "000799.SZ", "name": "酒鬼酒", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "白酒Ⅱ", "sw3": "白酒Ⅲ", "ind": "白酒Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19970718", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 39.38, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.5029, "dv_ttm": 0.7618, "total_mv": 1279570.402, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [78.9, 80.0, 79.6, 78.3, 71.4, 64.9], "rev_series": [18.3, 34.1, 40.5, 28.3, 14.2, 11.1], "np_series": [4.9, 8.9, 10.5, 5.5, 0.1, -0.3], "roe_series": [18.6, 28.0, 27.3, 13.0, 0.3, -0.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 10.8, "np_ttm": -0.3, "ocf_ttm": -0.4, "fcf_ttm": -1.9, "fcf_yield": -1.5, "ocf_yield": -0.3, "gm_median": 78.3, "gm_std": 5.9, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": 0.8, "npm_median": 19.4, "roe_median": 13.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 35.4, "fix_assets": 16.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.5, "capex_dep": 1.62, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 22.9, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 810.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -35.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -5.6, "np_yoy": 37.6, "np_vol": 156.2, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 13, "fwd_pe": 299.4, "fwd_pe2": 170.6, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 75.0, "peg": 3.99, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["酒鬼系列", 32.0], ["内参系列", 8.0], ["其他系列", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": -0.8, "ret_prev2_year": -23.2, "ret_ytd": -27.5, "ret_pivot": 6.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.2, "ret_60": 5.3, "ret_120": -16.3, "ret_250": -41.1, "mdd_250": -48.8, "vol_250": 42.0, "pos_52w": 54.0}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 79, "hard": 57, "bondness": 60}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.3 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 23%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 -0.3%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 35%、毛利率 78.3% 两条都占,但所在行业(食品饮料)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.5%(经营现金流/市值 -0.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 78.3%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.8 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 35%,资本开支/折旧 1.62 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -41%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 42%,现价在 52 周高点的 54%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / 5% / -16%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「白酒Ⅱ」19 家中位:PE 26.1 / 股息率 3.7% / 毛利率 74.5% / 固定资产占比 27% / 分红率 60%。", "酒鬼酒:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 2.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 8.3个百分点。"]}}