{"F": {"ts_code": "000798.SZ", "name": "中水渔业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "渔业", "sw3": "海洋捕捞", "ind": "渔业", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19980212", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.14, "pe_ttm": 37.1693, "pb": 6.7968, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 370980.7218, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [-19.6, -13.2, 10.7, 5.1, 3.2, 8.3], "rev_series": [4.5, 4.6, 6.0, 40.4, 49.3, 43.4], "np_series": [-1.5, -0.9, 0.1, -1.2, -1.0, 0.8], "roe_series": [-22.4, -15.2, 1.4, -17.2, -25.4, 21.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 46.7, "np_ttm": 1.0, "ocf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_ttm": -2.0, "fcf_yield": -5.5, "ocf_yield": 2.0, "gm_median": 5.1, "gm_std": 8.4, "gm_stab": -0.65, "gm_chg_2022": 30.3, "npm_median": 0.3, "roe_median": -15.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 44.5, "fix_assets": 27.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 6.8, "capex_dep": 1.31, "interest_debt": 27.9, "debt_ebitda": 5.4, "debt_ratio": 71.6, "debt_mv": 75.1, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 93.8, "np_cagr3": 104.2, "rev_yoy": 18.9, "np_yoy": 18.6, "np_vol": 119.8, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 87.0, "earn_yield": 2.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["渔业服务", 42.0], ["金枪鱼", 15.0], ["其它渔获物", 12.0], ["其他渔获物", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 42.8, "ret_prev2_year": -16.6, "ret_ytd": -4.2, "ret_pivot": 61.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 25.7, "ret_60": 31.5, "ret_120": -5.5, "ret_250": 22.0, "mdd_250": -57.8, "vol_250": 53.1, "pos_52w": 61.1}, "S": {"duration": 61, "pricing": 14, "hard": 71, "bondness": 15}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 44%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 5.1%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 30.3 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 5.4 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 44%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 5.1%,稳定度 -65%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -5.5%(经营现金流/市值 2.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 5.1%,稳定度 -65%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 30.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 44%,资本开支/折旧 1.31 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 37.2 倍 粗算,约 87%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 22%,最大回撤 -58%,年化波动 53%,现价在 52 周高点的 61%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 26% / 32% / -6%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「渔业」6 家中位:PE 108.6 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 17.9% / 固定资产占比 38% / 分红率 31%。", "中水渔业:PE 比行业中位低 71.4倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 12.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 6.7个百分点。"]}}