{"F": {"ts_code": "000796.SZ", "name": "凯撒旅业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "社会服务", "sw2": "旅游及景区", "sw3": "旅游综合", "ind": "旅游及景区", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19970703", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.37, "pe_ttm": 169.7897, "pb": 7.9166, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 700855.7493, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [18.7, 17.4, 15.2, 21.0, 22.7, 18.4], "rev_series": [16.1, 9.4, 3.1, 5.8, 6.5, 8.0], "np_series": [-7.0, -6.9, -10.4, 6.1, -1.0, 0.3], "roe_series": [-41.9, -128.0, null, 1469.7, -11.6, 3.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 9.2, "np_ttm": 0.4, "ocf_ttm": -1.2, "fcf_ttm": -2.2, "fcf_yield": -3.1, "ocf_yield": -1.7, "gm_median": 18.4, "gm_std": 2.7, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": -3.5, "npm_median": -15.4, "roe_median": -4.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 9.6, "fix_assets": 1.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.8, "pb_calc": 7.92, "capex_dep": 6.6, "interest_debt": 2.9, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 49.0, "debt_mv": 4.2, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 37.6, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 37.1, "np_yoy": 54.7, "np_vol": 104.6, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 45.0], ["旅游服务", 21.0], ["航空配餐及服务", 11.0], ["目的地业务", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 77.8, "ret_prev2_year": 4.1, "ret_ytd": -39.3, "ret_pivot": 42.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 13.2, "ret_60": 1.2, "ret_120": -17.7, "ret_250": -16.9, "mdd_250": -57.8, "vol_250": 54.2, "pos_52w": 53.5}, "S": {"duration": 99, "pricing": 44, "hard": 15, "bondness": 3}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.4 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 170 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 49%,有息负债 3 亿,经营现金流/市值 -1.7%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 10%,毛利率近 5 年中位 18.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.1%(经营现金流/市值 -1.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.4%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 10%,资本开支/折旧 6.60 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 169.8 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -17%,最大回撤 -58%,年化波动 54%,现价在 52 周高点的 54%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 13% / 1% / -18%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「旅游及景区」25 家中位:PE 66.7 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 32.9% / 固定资产占比 35% / 分红率 44%。", "凯撒旅业:PE 比行业中位高 103.1倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 14.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 25.2个百分点。"]}}