{"F": {"ts_code": "000791.SZ", "name": "甘肃能源", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "电力", "sw3": "水力发电", "ind": "电力", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19971014", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.22, "pe_ttm": 11.3345, "pb": 1.5442, "dv_ttm": 3.1856, "total_mv": 2342052.3356, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [45.8, 36.1, 35.6, 40.0, 35.7, 41.7], "rev_series": [22.6, 20.1, 20.5, 26.4, 87.0, 90.7], "np_series": [4.4, 2.6, 3.0, 5.2, 16.4, 20.5], "roe_series": [6.7, 3.8, 4.0, 6.1, 14.8, 14.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 93.0, "np_ttm": 20.7, "ocf_ttm": 50.1, "fcf_ttm": 13.8, "fcf_yield": 5.9, "ocf_yield": 21.4, "gm_median": 36.1, "gm_std": 2.5, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -10.2, "npm_median": 22.2, "roe_median": 6.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 77.5, "fix_assets": 306.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.54, "capex_dep": 2.26, "interest_debt": 180.1, "debt_ebitda": 3.3, "debt_ratio": 53.3, "debt_mv": 76.9, "payout": 34.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 64.2, "np_cagr3": 89.4, "rev_yoy": 6.1, "np_yoy": 1.8, "np_vol": 37.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 56.0, "earn_yield": 8.8, "consensus_n": 8, "fwd_pe": 10.3, "fwd_pe2": 9.7, "fwd_g1": 11.0, "fwd_g2": 6.0, "peg": 1.72, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["火电产品", 70.0], ["水电产品", 11.0], ["水电", 11.0], ["风电产品", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 10.7, "ret_prev2_year": 11.3, "ret_ytd": 16.1, "ret_pivot": 38.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -7.7, "ret_60": -12.4, "ret_120": -11.1, "ret_250": 13.0, "mdd_250": -32.1, "vol_250": 45.2, "pos_52w": 69.1}, "S": {"duration": 25, "pricing": 54, "hard": 100, "bondness": 41}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 11.3 倍、股息率 3.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 36.1%、固定资产占比 78%、有息负债/EBITDA 3.3 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 78%、毛利率 36.1% 看起来两条都占,但价格受管制(电力:电价/通行费/港口费由主管部门或市场化机制定),高毛利来自成本结构不是提价能力。通胀来了它不能提价,利润跟不上通胀,所以不算。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 5.9%(经营现金流/市值 21.4%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 36.1%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 78%,资本开支/折旧 2.26 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 11.3 倍 粗算,约 56%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 13%,最大回撤 -32%,年化波动 45%,现价在 52 周高点的 69%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / -12% / -11%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电力」109 家中位:PE 27.8 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 22.5% / 固定资产占比 61% / 分红率 42%。", "甘肃能源:PE 比行业中位低 16.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 13.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 16.8个百分点。"]}}