{"F": {"ts_code": "000789.SZ", "name": "万年青", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑材料", "sw2": "水泥", "sw3": "水泥制造", "ind": "水泥", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19970923", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.17, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 0.5273, "dv_ttm": 3.4236, "total_mv": 332524.2234, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [28.1, 27.4, 17.5, 18.4, 17.3, 15.3], "rev_series": [125.3, 142.0, 112.8, 81.9, 59.6, 45.6], "np_series": [14.8, 15.9, 3.9, 2.3, 0.1, 0.3], "roe_series": [25.8, 23.1, 5.4, 3.3, 0.2, 0.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 40.1, "np_ttm": -0.6, "ocf_ttm": 3.2, "fcf_ttm": 1.3, "fcf_yield": 3.9, "ocf_yield": 9.7, "gm_median": 17.5, "gm_std": 4.2, "gm_stab": 0.76, "gm_chg_2022": -10.7, "npm_median": 3.8, "roe_median": 3.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 42.3, "fix_assets": 54.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.4, "pb_calc": 0.53, "capex_dep": 0.4, "interest_debt": 14.2, "debt_ebitda": 3.8, "debt_ratio": 28.9, "debt_mv": 42.7, "payout": 396.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -26.1, "np_cagr3": -57.9, "rev_yoy": -24.8, "np_yoy": -218.5, "np_vol": 76.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 104.2, "fwd_pe2": 59.6, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 75.0, "peg": 1.39, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["水泥", 31.0], ["混凝土", 12.0], ["骨料", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 7.9, "ret_prev2_year": -27.2, "ret_ytd": -17.9, "ret_pivot": 3.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.7, "ret_60": 0.2, "ret_120": -25.5, "ret_250": -31.0, "mdd_250": -38.2, "vol_250": 22.9, "pos_52w": 68.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 39, "hard": 68, "bondness": 87}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["现金流红利", "亏损或困境"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 42%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 17.5%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.7 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 3.8 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 42%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 17.5%,稳定度 76%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.9%(经营现金流/市值 9.7%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.5%,稳定度 76%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 42%,资本开支/折旧 0.40 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -31%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 23%,现价在 52 周高点的 69%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / 0% / -26%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「水泥」21 家中位:PE 19.9 / 股息率 2.8% / 毛利率 17.5% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 50%。", "万年青:PE ;股息率 比行业中位高 0.6个百分点;毛利率 与行业中位持平;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 10.5个百分点。"]}}