{"F": {"ts_code": "000788.SZ", "name": "北大医药", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "化学制药", "sw3": "化学制剂", "ind": "化学制药", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19970616", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.52, "pe_ttm": 85.987, "pb": 2.168, "dv_ttm": 3.587, "total_mv": 328985.0448, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [45.5, 41.1, 37.2, 32.5, 26.8, 28.0], "rev_series": [19.8, 22.4, 20.8, 21.9, 20.6, 14.8], "np_series": [0.4, 0.4, 0.6, 0.4, 1.4, 0.8], "roe_series": [3.1, 3.3, 4.1, 3.2, 9.4, 5.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 9.7, "np_ttm": 0.4, "ocf_ttm": 6.1, "fcf_ttm": 5.7, "fcf_yield": 17.4, "ocf_yield": 18.4, "gm_median": 32.5, "gm_std": 5.4, "gm_stab": 0.83, "gm_chg_2022": -8.3, "npm_median": 2.7, "roe_median": 4.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 5.5, "fix_assets": 1.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.17, "capex_dep": 2.09, "interest_debt": 0.9, "debt_ebitda": 0.5, "debt_ratio": 21.1, "debt_mv": 2.7, "payout": 34.9, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -10.6, "np_cagr3": 14.0, "rev_yoy": -53.3, "np_yoy": -44.5, "np_vol": 89.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 42.0], ["制剂药", 26.0], ["药品及其他食品", 16.0], ["药品及其他", 16.0]], "ret_prev_year": 2.9, "ret_prev2_year": -9.9, "ret_ytd": -7.1, "ret_pivot": 12.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.2, "ret_60": 8.9, "ret_120": -9.2, "ret_250": -14.0, "mdd_250": -34.6, "vol_250": 42.7, "pos_52w": 75.1}, "S": {"duration": 88, "pricing": 49, "hard": 9, "bondness": 55}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 86.0 倍,估值里约 94% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 6%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 6%,毛利率近 5 年中位 32.5%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 17.4%(经营现金流/市值 18.4%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 32.5%,稳定度 83%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 6%,资本开支/折旧 2.09 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 86.0 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -14%,最大回撤 -35%,年化波动 43%,现价在 52 周高点的 75%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / 9% / -9%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制药」157 家中位:PE 37.5 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 52.5% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 38%。", "北大医药:PE 比行业中位高 48.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 20.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 24.3个百分点。"]}}