{"F": {"ts_code": "000786.SZ", "name": "北新建材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑材料", "sw2": "装修建材", "sw3": "其他建材", "ind": "装修建材", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19970606", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 16.28, "pe_ttm": 11.781, "pb": 1.0132, "dv_ttm": 4.2076, "total_mv": 2771240.208, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [33.7, 31.8, 29.2, 29.9, 29.9, 28.8], "rev_series": [168.0, 210.9, 199.3, 224.3, 258.2, 252.8], "np_series": [28.6, 35.1, 31.4, 35.2, 36.5, 29.1], "roe_series": [18.7, 19.7, 15.7, 15.9, 14.9, 11.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 243.5, "np_ttm": 23.5, "ocf_ttm": 39.3, "fcf_ttm": 28.6, "fcf_yield": 10.3, "ocf_yield": 14.2, "gm_median": 29.9, "gm_std": 1.0, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": -4.4, "npm_median": 15.8, "roe_median": 15.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 43.6, "fix_assets": 164.7, "goodwill_ratio": 6.3, "pb_calc": 1.01, "capex_dep": 1.16, "interest_debt": 17.6, "debt_ebitda": 0.5, "debt_ratio": 24.3, "debt_mv": 6.3, "payout": 40.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 8.2, "np_cagr3": -2.5, "rev_yoy": -6.8, "np_yoy": -28.7, "np_vol": 15.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 58.0, "earn_yield": 8.5, "consensus_n": 24, "fwd_pe": 8.5, "fwd_pe2": 7.4, "fwd_g1": 38.0, "fwd_g2": 15.0, "peg": 0.57, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["石膏板", 35.0], ["涂料", 16.0], ["防水沥青卷材", 11.0], ["防水卷材", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": -15.6, "ret_prev2_year": 37.1, "ret_ytd": -33.0, "ret_pivot": -30.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -10.5, "ret_60": -20.1, "ret_120": -35.9, "ret_250": -38.2, "mdd_250": -43.6, "vol_250": 32.5, "pos_52w": 56.4}, "S": {"duration": 26, "pricing": 53, "hard": 70, "bondness": 53}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["股息率≥4%", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 40%、股息率 4.2%、营收 3 年复合 8.2%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.5 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 44%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 29.9%,稳定度 97%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 10.3%(经营现金流/市值 14.2%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 29.9%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 44%,资本开支/折旧 1.16 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 11.8 倍 粗算,约 58%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -38%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 32%,现价在 52 周高点的 56%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -10% / -20% / -36%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「装修建材」39 家中位:PE 36.1 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 20.7% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 51%。", "北新建材:PE 比行业中位低 24.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 9.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 22.8个百分点。"]}}