{"F": {"ts_code": "000783.SZ", "name": "长江证券", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "非银金融", "sw2": "证券Ⅱ", "sw3": "证券Ⅲ", "ind": "证券Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19970731", "is_fin": true, "roles": {"fin": true, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.26, "pe_ttm": 9.9396, "pb": 1.3876, "dv_ttm": 3.2397, "total_mv": 5120847.5054, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [null, null, null, null, null, null], "rev_series": [77.8, 86.2, 63.7, 69.0, 68.0, 105.5], "np_series": [20.9, 24.1, 15.1, 15.5, 18.3, 37.0], "roe_series": [7.3, 8.0, 4.9, 4.7, 5.0, 9.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 132.7, "np_ttm": 51.5, "ocf_ttm": 215.2, "fcf_ttm": 213.7, "fcf_yield": 41.7, "ocf_yield": 42.0, "gm_median": null, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 27.0, "roe_median": 5.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 0.4, "fix_assets": 10.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.19, "capex_dep": 1.14, "interest_debt": 396.8, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 81.5, "debt_mv": 77.5, "payout": 47.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 18.3, "np_cagr3": 34.8, "rev_yoy": 58.6, "np_yoy": 83.8, "np_vol": 45.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 50.0, "earn_yield": 10.1, "consensus_n": 6, "fwd_pe": 10.3, "fwd_pe2": 10.4, "fwd_g1": -3.0, "fwd_g2": -1.0, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 21.0], ["证券经纪业务", 11.0], ["手续费及佣金净收入：手续费及佣金收入", 10.0], ["手续费及佣金净收入", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 23.2, "ret_prev2_year": 32.4, "ret_ytd": 18.0, "ret_pivot": 104.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.4, "ret_60": 30.8, "ret_120": 27.7, "ret_250": 10.1, "mdd_250": -26.3, "vol_250": 43.1, "pos_52w": 87.9}, "S": {"duration": 22, "pricing": null, "hard": null, "bondness": 41}, "label": "金融·利差生意", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["长江证券 是证券Ⅱ。银行赚的是利差,券商保险赚的是资产端与费率,毛利率与固定资产两个轴对它没有意义。", "ROE 近 5 年中位 5.0%,PB 1.39倍,股息率 3.2%,分红率 48%。", "利率上行对银行是净息差扩张(少数受益方向);对保险是资产端浮亏、对券商是交投与融资成本。"], "加息期怎么走": "按笔记:日债/美债收益率上行期,银行股是例外的受益方向;红利型大行按'现金流红利'拿,盯息差而不盯黄金。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "金融业现金流表不适用;用盈利收益率 10.1%(1/PE)与股息率 3.2% 看。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 9.9 倍 粗算,约 50%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 10%,最大回撤 -26%,年化波动 43%,现价在 52 周高点的 88%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / 31% / 28%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「证券Ⅱ」50 家中位:PE 15.7 / 股息率 1.9% / 毛利率 10.2% / 固定资产占比 0% / 分红率 33%。", "长江证券:PE 比行业中位低 5.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.3个百分点;毛利率 ;固定资产占比 与行业中位持平。"]}}