{"F": {"ts_code": "000782.SZ", "name": "恒申新材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学纤维", "sw3": "锦纶", "ind": "化学纤维", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19970619", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.5, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.2685, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 514936.125, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [6.9, 9.5, 4.6, 2.8, 3.6, 2.6], "rev_series": [23.5, 33.2, 29.1, 28.2, 32.5, 24.6], "np_series": [0.4, 0.6, -0.6, -1.4, -0.7, -1.5], "roe_series": [2.7, 3.8, -3.8, -10.7, -4.6, -9.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 25.2, "np_ttm": -1.6, "ocf_ttm": -0.6, "fcf_ttm": -12.4, "fcf_yield": -24.1, "ocf_yield": -1.2, "gm_median": 3.6, "gm_std": 2.5, "gm_stab": 0.29, "gm_chg_2022": -2.3, "npm_median": -2.2, "roe_median": -4.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 30.0, "fix_assets": 13.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.27, "capex_dep": 18.58, "interest_debt": 14.5, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 63.9, "debt_mv": 28.2, "payout": null, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -5.5, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 5.3, "np_yoy": -26.5, "np_vol": 104.8, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["切片", 58.0], ["锦纶丝", 37.0], ["纺织印染布", 5.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 8.8, "ret_prev2_year": -16.9, "ret_ytd": 51.2, "ret_pivot": 85.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.8, "ret_60": 0.8, "ret_120": 25.6, "ret_250": 30.0, "mdd_250": -33.4, "vol_250": 46.6, "pos_52w": 83.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 18, "hard": 48, "bondness": 23}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 30%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 3.6%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.3 个百分点;资产负债率 64%,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 30%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 3.6%,稳定度 29%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -24.1%(经营现金流/市值 -1.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 3.6%,稳定度 29%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 30%,资本开支/折旧 18.58 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 30%,最大回撤 -33%,年化波动 47%,现价在 52 周高点的 84%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / 1% / 26%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学纤维」27 家中位:PE 32.4 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 15.3% / 固定资产占比 46% / 分红率 35%。", "恒申新材:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 11.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 15.6个百分点。"]}}