{"F": {"ts_code": "000778.SZ", "name": "新兴铸管", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "钢铁", "sw2": "普钢", "sw3": "钢铁管材", "ind": "普钢", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19970606", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.71, "pe_ttm": 16.0718, "pb": 0.5609, "dv_ttm": 2.0216, "total_mv": 1470340.6333, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [13.0, 10.2, 7.3, 6.3, 5.4, 7.7], "rev_series": [429.6, 533.0, 477.6, 432.5, 361.9, 370.2], "np_series": [18.1, 20.1, 16.8, 13.5, 1.7, 9.5], "roe_series": [8.4, 8.8, 7.0, 5.4, 0.7, 3.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 404.2, "np_ttm": 9.1, "ocf_ttm": 30.5, "fcf_ttm": 21.0, "fcf_yield": 14.3, "ocf_yield": 20.7, "gm_median": 7.3, "gm_std": 1.6, "gm_stab": 0.78, "gm_chg_2022": -5.7, "npm_median": 3.3, "roe_median": 5.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 44.1, "fix_assets": 220.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.56, "capex_dep": 0.56, "interest_debt": 93.3, "debt_ebitda": 3.2, "debt_ratio": 42.6, "debt_mv": 63.5, "payout": 31.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -8.1, "np_cagr3": -17.3, "rev_yoy": 19.2, "np_yoy": -8.0, "np_vol": 200.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 69.0, "earn_yield": 6.2, "consensus_n": 6, "fwd_pe": 13.9, "fwd_pe2": 12.3, "fwd_g1": 15.0, "fwd_g2": 14.0, "peg": 0.99, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 46.0], ["优特钢", 17.0], ["铸管及管铸件", 11.0], ["普钢", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 9.6, "ret_prev2_year": 2.2, "ret_ytd": -9.6, "ret_pivot": 24.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.1, "ret_60": -5.5, "ret_120": -24.2, "ret_250": -1.5, "mdd_250": -30.6, "vol_250": 29.7, "pos_52w": 71.3}, "S": {"duration": 33, "pricing": 35, "hard": 71, "bondness": 53}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 44%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 7.3%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.7 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 3.2 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 44%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 7.3%,稳定度 78%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 14.3%(经营现金流/市值 20.7%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 7.3%,稳定度 78%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 44%,资本开支/折旧 0.56 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 16.1 倍 粗算,约 69%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -2%,最大回撤 -31%,年化波动 30%,现价在 52 周高点的 71%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / -6% / -24%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「普钢」22 家中位:PE 24.6 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 3.5% / 固定资产占比 58% / 分红率 57%。", "新兴铸管:PE 比行业中位低 8.5倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 14.1个百分点。"]}}