{"F": {"ts_code": "000768.SZ", "name": "中航西飞", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "航空装备Ⅱ", "sw3": "航空装备Ⅲ", "ind": "航空装备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19970626", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 23.7, "pe_ttm": 69.2191, "pb": 2.9421, "dv_ttm": 0.6329, "total_mv": 6590045.937, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [7.8, 7.5, 7.1, 6.9, 5.9, 6.8], "rev_series": [334.8, 327.0, 376.6, 403.0, 432.2, 410.1], "np_series": [7.8, 6.5, 5.2, 8.6, 10.2, 11.5], "roe_series": [4.9, 4.2, 3.3, 4.8, 5.0, 5.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 357.8, "np_ttm": 9.5, "ocf_ttm": 29.2, "fcf_ttm": 20.1, "fcf_yield": 3.0, "ocf_yield": 4.4, "gm_median": 6.9, "gm_std": 0.5, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -0.8, "npm_median": 2.1, "roe_median": 4.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 11.6, "fix_assets": 90.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.94, "capex_dep": 0.97, "interest_debt": 49.0, "debt_ebitda": 2.2, "debt_ratio": 71.0, "debt_mv": 7.4, "payout": 32.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 2.9, "np_cagr3": 30.1, "rev_yoy": -26.9, "np_yoy": -28.9, "np_vol": 30.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.4, "consensus_n": 15, "fwd_pe": 53.5, "fwd_pe2": 46.3, "fwd_g1": 29.0, "fwd_g2": 15.0, "peg": 3.57, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["航空产品", 49.0], ["其他收入", 1.0], ["其他", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": -9.8, "ret_prev2_year": 27.1, "ret_ytd": -6.1, "ret_pivot": 6.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 14.3, "ret_60": 14.9, "ret_120": -11.3, "ret_250": -18.5, "mdd_250": -37.2, "vol_250": 35.9, "pos_52w": 76.2}, "S": {"duration": 82, "pricing": 43, "hard": 19, "bondness": 39}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 69.2 倍,估值里约 93% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 12%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(15 篇研报)前瞻 PE 53.5 倍,次年 46.3 倍,PEG 3.57。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 12%,毛利率近 5 年中位 6.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.0%(经营现金流/市值 4.4%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 6.9%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 12%,资本开支/折旧 0.97 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 69.2 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -18%,最大回撤 -37%,年化波动 36%,现价在 52 周高点的 76%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 14% / 15% / -11%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「航空装备Ⅱ」48 家中位:PE 73.9 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 32.0% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 36%。", "中航西飞:PE 比行业中位低 4.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 25.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 9.0个百分点。"]}}