{"F": {"ts_code": "000767.SZ", "name": "晋控电力", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "电力", "sw3": "火力发电", "ind": "电力", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19970609", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.38, "pe_ttm": 60.2497, "pb": 1.7183, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1040006.4636, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [20.3, 15.8, 7.2, 7.3, 9.8, 12.4], "rev_series": [116.9, 152.7, 202.2, 196.2, 166.7, 154.6], "np_series": [2.3, 0.0, -6.8, -5.2, 0.3, 2.0], "roe_series": [2.9, 0.0, -6.9, -4.7, 0.3, 1.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 152.9, "np_ttm": 1.7, "ocf_ttm": 22.2, "fcf_ttm": 2.2, "fcf_yield": 2.1, "ocf_yield": 21.3, "gm_median": 9.8, "gm_std": 3.3, "gm_stab": 0.67, "gm_chg_2022": -13.2, "npm_median": -1.7, "roe_median": 0.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 58.3, "fix_assets": 320.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.94, "capex_dep": 0.89, "interest_debt": 362.5, "debt_ebitda": 10.0, "debt_ratio": 81.4, "debt_mv": 348.6, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -8.6, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -2.3, "np_yoy": -16.4, "np_vol": 7205.9, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["火电电力", 67.0], ["燃煤", 42.0], ["燃料", 42.0], ["热力", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 10.7, "ret_prev2_year": -15.9, "ret_ytd": 20.7, "ret_pivot": 51.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -12.2, "ret_60": -27.0, "ret_120": -10.3, "ret_250": 9.4, "mdd_250": -46.3, "vol_250": 56.2, "pos_52w": 55.0}, "S": {"duration": 78, "pricing": 32, "hard": 93, "bondness": 35}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 1.7 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 60 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 81%,有息负债 362 亿,经营现金流/市值 21.3%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 58%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 9.8%,稳定度 67%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.1%(经营现金流/市值 21.3%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 9.8%,稳定度 67%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -13.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 58%,资本开支/折旧 0.89 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 60.2 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 9%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 56%,现价在 52 周高点的 55%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -12% / -27% / -10%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电力」109 家中位:PE 27.8 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 22.5% / 固定资产占比 61% / 分红率 42%。", "晋控电力:PE 比行业中位高 32.4倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 12.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.4个百分点。"]}}