{"F": {"ts_code": "000762.SZ", "name": "西藏矿业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "能源金属", "sw3": "锂", "ind": "能源金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19970708", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 22.18, "pe_ttm": 255.7956, "pb": 3.8647, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1155176.9856, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [6.2, 55.8, 91.0, 68.0, 47.0, 32.1], "rev_series": [3.8, 6.4, 22.1, 8.1, 6.2, 3.5], "np_series": [-0.5, 1.4, 8.0, 1.6, 1.1, -0.3], "roe_series": [-2.4, 6.7, 31.1, 5.6, 3.8, -1.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 7.6, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 3.6, "fcf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_yield": 1.0, "ocf_yield": 3.1, "gm_median": 55.8, "gm_std": 19.9, "gm_stab": 0.64, "gm_chg_2022": 84.8, "npm_median": 28.5, "roe_median": 5.6, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 34.0, "fix_assets": 24.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.86, "capex_dep": 2.16, "interest_debt": 14.2, "debt_ebitda": 4.2, "debt_ratio": 44.9, "debt_mv": 12.3, "payout": 105.6, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -45.8, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 304.6, "np_yoy": 492.5, "np_vol": 251.7, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["碳酸锂", 38.0], ["氯化钾", 14.0], ["锂精矿（普通）", 11.0], ["锂精矿(普通)", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 22.5, "ret_prev2_year": -24.6, "ret_ytd": -15.6, "ret_pivot": 23.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -7.3, "ret_60": -24.5, "ret_120": -25.0, "ret_250": -2.0, "mdd_250": -50.2, "vol_250": 50.5, "pos_52w": 56.0}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 70, "hard": 54, "bondness": 68}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["商品定价", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 24 亿,占总资产 34%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权来自商品本身:锂 的价格是通胀的组成部分,利润是商品价格的函数。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 1.0%,股息率 —,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 98%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 34%)和定价权(商品价格)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.0%(经营现金流/市值 3.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 55.8%,稳定度 64%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 84.8 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 34%,资本开支/折旧 2.16 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 255.8 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -2%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 50%,现价在 52 周高点的 56%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / -24% / -25%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「能源金属」11 家中位:PE 17.9 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 18.4% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 31%。", "西藏矿业:PE 比行业中位高 237.9倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 37.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 3.5个百分点。"]}}