{"F": {"ts_code": "000753.SZ", "name": "漳州发展", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "综合", "sw2": "综合Ⅱ", "sw3": "综合Ⅲ", "ind": "综合Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19970626", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.18, "pe_ttm": 73.8858, "pb": 1.8707, "dv_ttm": 0.3861, "total_mv": 513587.2098, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [17.1, 18.2, 18.4, 16.7, 15.6, 19.1], "rev_series": [31.2, 30.6, 28.5, 36.5, 33.0, 27.5], "np_series": [1.3, 1.4, 0.8, 0.8, 0.5, 0.6], "roe_series": [5.5, 5.4, 2.9, 2.9, 1.8, 1.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 25.5, "np_ttm": 0.7, "ocf_ttm": 5.6, "fcf_ttm": 1.8, "fcf_yield": 3.4, "ocf_yield": 11.0, "gm_median": 18.2, "gm_std": 1.3, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": 1.3, "npm_median": 2.8, "roe_median": 2.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 13.3, "fix_assets": 17.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 1.3, "capex_dep": 3.44, "interest_debt": 48.4, "debt_ebitda": 17.8, "debt_ratio": 64.3, "debt_mv": 94.2, "payout": 38.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -1.2, "np_cagr3": -5.0, "rev_yoy": -15.8, "np_yoy": 11.7, "np_vol": 24.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["工程施工", 17.0], ["汽车销售：新能源车", 13.0], ["新能源汽车", 13.0], ["燃油汽车", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 84.2, "ret_prev2_year": 3.1, "ret_ytd": -34.1, "ret_pivot": 90.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.8, "ret_60": 5.4, "ret_120": -25.5, "ret_250": -28.7, "mdd_250": -59.6, "vol_250": 53.2, "pos_52w": 48.8}, "S": {"duration": 84, "pricing": 50, "hard": 21, "bondness": 51}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 73.9 倍、股息率 0.4%、毛利率近 5 年中位 18.2%、固定资产占比 13%、有息负债/EBITDA 17.8 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 13%,毛利率近 5 年中位 18.2%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.4%(经营现金流/市值 11.0%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.2%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 13%,资本开支/折旧 3.44 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 73.9 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -29%,最大回撤 -60%,年化波动 53%,现价在 52 周高点的 49%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 9% / 5% / -26%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「综合Ⅱ」20 家中位:PE 46.7 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 15.5% / 固定资产占比 12% / 分红率 35%。", "漳州发展:PE 比行业中位高 27.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.9个百分点。"]}}