{"F": {"ts_code": "000752.SZ", "name": "*ST西发", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "非白酒", "sw3": "啤酒", "ind": "非白酒", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19970625", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.95, "pe_ttm": 16.8384, "pb": 3.7118, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 236063.8575, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.8, 23.6, 15.0, 30.1, 38.8, 42.1], "rev_series": [4.1, 3.9, 2.8, 3.4, 4.2, 4.3], "np_series": [0.1, -0.1, -0.8, -0.3, 0.3, 1.4], "roe_series": [29.4, -47.5, null, -87.0, 21.0, 38.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.4, "np_ttm": 1.4, "ocf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_yield": 2.8, "ocf_yield": 5.8, "gm_median": 30.1, "gm_std": 9.9, "gm_stab": 0.67, "gm_chg_2022": -8.8, "npm_median": 5.1, "roe_median": -13.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 15.2, "fix_assets": 2.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.71, "capex_dep": 4.21, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 18.7, "debt_mv": 0.2, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 16.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 1.4, "np_yoy": -14.7, "np_vol": 300.2, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 70.0, "earn_yield": 5.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["啤酒", 100.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 28.2, "ret_prev2_year": 21.4, "ret_ytd": -18.6, "ret_pivot": 34.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.4, "ret_60": 0.1, "ret_120": -13.4, "ret_250": -19.1, "mdd_250": -41.8, "vol_250": 39.4, "pos_52w": 71.1}, "S": {"duration": 34, "pricing": 42, "hard": 24, "bondness": 4}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 1.4 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 17 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 19%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 5.8%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 15%,毛利率近 5 年中位 30.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.8%(经营现金流/市值 5.8%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 30.1%,稳定度 67%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 15%,资本开支/折旧 4.21 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 16.8 倍 粗算,约 70%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -19%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 39%,现价在 52 周高点的 71%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 0% / 0% / -13%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「非白酒」16 家中位:PE 22.9 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 40.5% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 60%。", "*ST西发:PE 比行业中位低 6.1倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 10.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 12.4个百分点。"]}}