{"F": {"ts_code": "000751.SZ", "name": "锌业股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "工业金属", "sw3": "铅锌", "ind": "工业金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19970626", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.95, "pe_ttm": 114.0322, "pb": 2.1792, "dv_ttm": 0.202, "total_mv": 799737.147, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [9.7, 3.5, 2.9, 4.1, 3.4, 3.2], "rev_series": [68.1, 228.4, 186.6, 156.7, 156.0, 185.3], "np_series": [2.3, 2.3, 0.7, 0.9, 0.2, 0.7], "roe_series": [8.5, 7.9, 2.2, 2.7, 0.6, 1.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 196.5, "np_ttm": 0.7, "ocf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_ttm": -2.5, "fcf_yield": -3.1, "ocf_yield": 1.8, "gm_median": 3.4, "gm_std": 0.4, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -6.8, "npm_median": 0.4, "roe_median": 2.2, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 19.0, "fix_assets": 21.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.18, "capex_dep": 3.15, "interest_debt": 38.6, "debt_ebitda": 8.7, "debt_ratio": 67.8, "debt_mv": 48.3, "payout": 162.5, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -0.2, "np_cagr3": 1.2, "rev_yoy": 12.6, "np_yoy": 3.2, "np_vol": 108.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 44.0], ["阴极铜", 20.0], ["锌品", 12.0], ["其他产品", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 45.7, "ret_prev2_year": -12.8, "ret_ytd": 21.3, "ret_pivot": 95.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.6, "ret_60": 6.9, "ret_120": -18.0, "ret_250": 38.3, "mdd_250": -44.7, "vol_250": 60.5, "pos_52w": 64.5}, "S": {"duration": 94, "pricing": 70, "hard": 30, "bondness": 71}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["商品定价", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 114.0 倍、股息率 0.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 3.4%、固定资产占比 19%、有息负债/EBITDA 8.7 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 3.4%),硬资产占比 19%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.1%(经营现金流/市值 1.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 3.4%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 19%,资本开支/折旧 3.15 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 114.0 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 38%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 60%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / 7% / -18%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工业金属」60 家中位:PE 20.5 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 10.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 32%。", "锌业股份:PE 比行业中位高 93.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 7.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 8.5个百分点。"]}}