{"F": {"ts_code": "000738.SZ", "name": "航发控制", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "航空装备Ⅱ", "sw3": "航空装备Ⅲ", "ind": "航空装备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19970626", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 19.58, "pe_ttm": 106.0476, "pb": 2.0459, "dv_ttm": 0.3933, "total_mv": 2575130.272, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [29.0, 28.2, 27.8, 27.5, 28.1, 23.1], "rev_series": [35.0, 41.6, 49.4, 53.2, 54.8, 51.7], "np_series": [3.7, 4.9, 6.9, 7.3, 7.5, 3.3], "roe_series": [6.3, 5.9, 6.3, 6.3, 6.2, 2.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 52.0, "np_ttm": 2.4, "ocf_ttm": 4.9, "fcf_ttm": -2.9, "fcf_yield": -1.1, "ocf_yield": 1.9, "gm_median": 27.8, "gm_std": 1.9, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -1.3, "npm_median": 13.7, "roe_median": 6.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 24.4, "fix_assets": 40.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.05, "capex_dep": 1.39, "interest_debt": 1.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 18.1, "debt_mv": 0.4, "payout": 30.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 1.5, "np_cagr3": -21.4, "rev_yoy": 0.9, "np_yoy": -29.7, "np_vol": 33.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 0.9, "consensus_n": 10, "fwd_pe": 61.0, "fwd_pe2": 52.4, "fwd_g1": 74.0, "fwd_g2": 17.0, "peg": 3.59, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["航空发动机及燃气轮机控制系统", 80.0], ["国际合作业务", 7.0], ["国际合作", 7.0], ["控制系统技术衍生品", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": -3.4, "ret_prev2_year": 12.9, "ret_ytd": -7.8, "ret_pivot": 10.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.2, "ret_60": 8.2, "ret_120": -16.5, "ret_250": -7.6, "mdd_250": -43.7, "vol_250": 42.2, "pos_52w": 66.7}, "S": {"duration": 93, "pricing": 53, "hard": 39, "bondness": 32}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 106.0 倍、股息率 0.4%、毛利率近 5 年中位 27.8%、固定资产占比 24%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 24%,毛利率近 5 年中位 27.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.1%(经营现金流/市值 1.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 27.8%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 24%,资本开支/折旧 1.39 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 106.0 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -8%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 42%,现价在 52 周高点的 67%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / 8% / -16%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「航空装备Ⅱ」48 家中位:PE 73.9 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 32.0% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 36%。", "航发控制:PE 比行业中位高 32.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 3.8个百分点。"]}}