{"F": {"ts_code": "000737.SZ", "name": "北方铜业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "工业金属", "sw3": "铜", "ind": "工业金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19970428", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.35, "pe_ttm": 16.0821, "pb": 3.4584, "dv_ttm": 0.9756, "total_mv": 2733268.1775, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.3, 18.4, 11.9, 14.5, 7.1, 10.3], "rev_series": [11.3, 99.6, 106.8, 93.2, 241.1, 279.2], "np_series": [0.9, 8.4, 6.1, 6.2, 6.1, 7.9], "roe_series": [20.5, 39.0, 15.1, 13.5, 11.0, 12.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 368.0, "np_ttm": 17.0, "ocf_ttm": 38.4, "fcf_ttm": 28.6, "fcf_yield": 10.5, "ocf_yield": 14.1, "gm_median": 11.9, "gm_std": 3.8, "gm_stab": 0.68, "gm_chg_2022": -9.4, "npm_median": 5.7, "roe_median": 13.5, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 37.3, "fix_assets": 78.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.46, "capex_dep": 2.05, "interest_debt": 97.4, "debt_ebitda": 2.8, "debt_ratio": 62.4, "debt_mv": 35.7, "payout": 31.8, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 37.8, "np_cagr3": 9.0, "rev_yoy": 69.3, "np_yoy": 186.6, "np_vol": 22.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 69.0, "earn_yield": 6.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 44.0], ["阴极铜", 30.0], ["贵金属", 10.0], ["金锭", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 102.0, "ret_prev2_year": 38.5, "ret_ytd": -5.9, "ret_pivot": 74.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.0, "ret_60": 13.3, "ret_120": -5.1, "ret_250": 16.1, "mdd_250": -42.7, "vol_250": 56.1, "pos_52w": 70.2}, "S": {"duration": 33, "pricing": 70, "hard": 60, "bondness": 25}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["商品定价", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 78 亿,占总资产 37%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权来自商品本身:铜 的价格是通胀的组成部分,利润是商品价格的函数。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 10.5%,股息率 1.0%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 69%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 37%)和定价权(商品价格)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 10.5%(经营现金流/市值 14.1%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 11.9%,稳定度 68%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 37%,资本开支/折旧 2.05 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 16.1 倍 粗算,约 69%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 16%,最大回撤 -43%,年化波动 56%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / 13% / -5%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工业金属」60 家中位:PE 20.5 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 10.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 32%。", "北方铜业:PE 比行业中位低 4.4倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 9.8个百分点。"]}}