{"F": {"ts_code": "000735.SZ", "name": "罗牛山", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "养殖业", "sw3": "生猪养殖", "ind": "养殖业", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19970611", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.13, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.772, "dv_ttm": 0.571, "total_mv": 705877.8368, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [16.2, 4.3, 16.4, 16.1, 23.8, 25.6], "rev_series": [23.3, 18.7, 28.8, 41.0, 33.3, 33.8], "np_series": [1.0, -4.2, 0.9, -4.9, 2.4, 1.5], "roe_series": [2.5, -10.6, 2.2, -11.9, 5.9, 3.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 35.3, "np_ttm": -1.5, "ocf_ttm": -1.0, "fcf_ttm": -2.9, "fcf_yield": -4.1, "ocf_yield": -1.5, "gm_median": 16.4, "gm_std": 7.5, "gm_stab": 0.54, "gm_chg_2022": 0.2, "npm_median": 4.0, "roe_median": 2.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 39.0, "fix_assets": 36.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.5, "pb_calc": 1.77, "capex_dep": 0.77, "interest_debt": 19.2, "debt_ebitda": 5.0, "debt_ratio": 52.3, "debt_mv": 27.2, "payout": 17.9, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 5.4, "np_cagr3": 19.9, "rev_yoy": 14.5, "np_yoy": -4508.0, "np_vol": 333.4, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["生猪", 34.0], ["其他主营业务", 14.0], ["其他", 14.0], ["饲料", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": 36.3, "ret_prev2_year": 16.0, "ret_ytd": -31.9, "ret_pivot": 32.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 19.7, "ret_60": 21.1, "ret_120": -19.2, "ret_250": -4.4, "mdd_250": -57.3, "vol_250": 50.2, "pos_52w": 55.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 35, "hard": 62, "bondness": 39}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 39%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 16.4%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.2 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 5.0 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 39%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 16.4%,稳定度 54%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.1%(经营现金流/市值 -1.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.4%,稳定度 54%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 39%,资本开支/折旧 0.77 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -4%,最大回撤 -57%,年化波动 50%,现价在 52 周高点的 55%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 20% / 21% / -19%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「养殖业」22 家中位:PE 39.4 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 11.1% / 固定资产占比 50% / 分红率 50%。", "罗牛山:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 1.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 11.2个百分点。"]}}