{"F": {"ts_code": "000731.SZ", "name": "四川美丰", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "农化制品", "sw3": "氮肥", "ind": "农化制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19970617", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.48, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.0803, "dv_ttm": 1.3393, "total_mv": 410521.7732, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [15.8, 29.9, 25.6, 20.4, 18.4, 8.2], "rev_series": [29.1, 40.9, 49.1, 41.7, 45.5, 37.1], "np_series": [1.0, 5.7, 6.2, 3.8, 2.7, -1.2], "roe_series": [3.7, 18.1, 16.8, 9.4, 6.5, -3.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 37.5, "np_ttm": -1.8, "ocf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_ttm": -1.1, "fcf_yield": -2.6, "ocf_yield": -0.6, "gm_median": 20.4, "gm_std": 7.3, "gm_stab": 0.64, "gm_chg_2022": 9.8, "npm_median": 9.8, "roe_median": 9.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 36.0, "fix_assets": 17.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.08, "capex_dep": 0.4, "interest_debt": 1.0, "debt_ebitda": 1.6, "debt_ratio": 13.1, "debt_mv": 2.4, "payout": 41.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -8.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 1.7, "np_yoy": -765.6, "np_vol": 206.2, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 47.0], ["天然气供应", 12.0], ["复合肥", 12.0], ["尿素", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": -7.5, "ret_prev2_year": 3.1, "ret_ytd": 14.4, "ret_pivot": 21.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 30.8, "ret_60": 27.2, "ret_120": -8.1, "ret_250": 3.2, "mdd_250": -40.6, "vol_250": 32.2, "pos_52w": 87.0}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 44, "hard": 58, "bondness": 47}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -1.8 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 13%,有息负债 1 亿,经营现金流/市值 -0.6%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 36%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 20.4%,稳定度 64%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.6%(经营现金流/市值 -0.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 20.4%,稳定度 64%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 9.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 36%,资本开支/折旧 0.40 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 3%,最大回撤 -41%,年化波动 32%,现价在 52 周高点的 87%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 31% / 27% / -8%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「农化制品」62 家中位:PE 20.8 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 19.9% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 45%。", "四川美丰:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.4个百分点。"]}}