{"F": {"ts_code": "000729.SZ", "name": "燕京啤酒", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "非白酒", "sw3": "啤酒", "ind": "非白酒", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19970716", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.27, "pe_ttm": 16.0807, "pb": 1.8818, "dv_ttm": 2.6619, "total_mv": 3176493.9038, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [39.2, 38.4, 37.4, 37.6, 40.7, 43.6], "rev_series": [109.3, 119.6, 132.0, 142.1, 146.7, 153.3], "np_series": [2.0, 2.3, 3.5, 6.4, 10.6, 16.8], "roe_series": [1.5, 1.7, 2.6, 4.7, 7.4, 11.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 158.1, "np_ttm": 19.8, "ocf_ttm": 28.0, "fcf_ttm": 13.7, "fcf_yield": 4.3, "ocf_yield": 8.8, "gm_median": 38.4, "gm_std": 2.3, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -1.8, "npm_median": 6.0, "roe_median": 4.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 32.0, "fix_assets": 84.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 1.88, "capex_dep": 2.53, "interest_debt": 6.4, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 30.5, "debt_mv": 2.0, "payout": 50.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 5.1, "np_cagr3": 68.3, "rev_yoy": 5.5, "np_yoy": 26.9, "np_vol": 22.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 69.0, "earn_yield": 6.2, "consensus_n": 31, "fwd_pe": 15.6, "fwd_pe2": 13.5, "fwd_g1": 3.0, "fwd_g2": 15.0, "peg": 1.04, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["啤酒", 87.0], ["其他主营业务", 6.0], ["其他", 6.0], ["饮料及水", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": -4.5, "ret_prev2_year": 43.7, "ret_ytd": 2.2, "ret_pivot": 29.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -10.9, "ret_60": 0.1, "ret_120": -12.5, "ret_250": -9.3, "mdd_250": -30.6, "vol_250": 30.2, "pos_52w": 80.2}, "S": {"duration": 33, "pricing": 58, "hard": 51, "bondness": 49}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["成长兑现", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 84 亿,占总资产 32%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 38.4%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.8 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 4.3%,股息率 2.7%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 69%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 32%)和定价权(毛利率 38.4% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.3%(经营现金流/市值 8.8%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 38.4%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 32%,资本开支/折旧 2.53 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 16.1 倍 粗算,约 69%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -9%,最大回撤 -31%,年化波动 30%,现价在 52 周高点的 80%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -11% / 0% / -12%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「非白酒」16 家中位:PE 22.9 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 40.5% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 60%。", "燕京啤酒:PE 比行业中位低 6.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 4.4个百分点。"]}}