{"F": {"ts_code": "000728.SZ", "name": "国元证券", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "非银金融", "sw2": "证券Ⅱ", "sw3": "证券Ⅲ", "ind": "证券Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19970616", "is_fin": true, "roles": {"fin": true, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.76, "pe_ttm": 12.4285, "pb": 0.8769, "dv_ttm": 2.3196, "total_mv": 3386291.6504, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [null, null, null, null, null, null], "rev_series": [45.3, 61.1, 53.4, 63.6, 78.5, 62.5], "np_series": [13.7, 19.1, 17.3, 18.7, 22.4, 24.3], "roe_series": [4.9, 6.0, 5.3, 5.5, 6.3, 6.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 68.0, "np_ttm": 27.2, "ocf_ttm": 56.2, "fcf_ttm": 54.3, "fcf_yield": 16.0, "ocf_yield": 16.6, "gm_median": null, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 31.3, "roe_median": 6.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 0.6, "fix_assets": 12.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 0.88, "capex_dep": 2.11, "interest_debt": 312.7, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 80.9, "debt_mv": 92.3, "payout": 32.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 5.4, "np_cagr3": 11.9, "rev_yoy": 16.2, "np_yoy": 21.2, "np_vol": 16.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 60.0, "earn_yield": 8.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 23.0], ["投资收益", 11.0], ["利息净收入：利息收入", 10.0], ["证券投资业务", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 2.9, "ret_prev2_year": 26.5, "ret_ytd": -5.9, "ret_pivot": 26.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 7.6, "ret_60": 16.9, "ret_120": -1.3, "ret_250": -16.1, "mdd_250": -29.4, "vol_250": 24.6, "pos_52w": 82.6}, "S": {"duration": 27, "pricing": null, "hard": null, "bondness": 43}, "label": "金融·利差生意", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["国元证券 是证券Ⅱ。银行赚的是利差,券商保险赚的是资产端与费率,毛利率与固定资产两个轴对它没有意义。", "ROE 近 5 年中位 6.0%,PB 0.88倍,股息率 2.3%,分红率 32%。", "利率上行对银行是净息差扩张(少数受益方向);对保险是资产端浮亏、对券商是交投与融资成本。"], "加息期怎么走": "按笔记:日债/美债收益率上行期,银行股是例外的受益方向;红利型大行按'现金流红利'拿,盯息差而不盯黄金。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "金融业现金流表不适用;用盈利收益率 8.0%(1/PE)与股息率 2.3% 看。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 12.4 倍 粗算,约 60%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -16%,最大回撤 -29%,年化波动 25%,现价在 52 周高点的 83%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / 17% / -1%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「证券Ⅱ」50 家中位:PE 15.7 / 股息率 1.9% / 毛利率 10.2% / 固定资产占比 0% / 分红率 33%。", "国元证券:PE 比行业中位低 3.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.4个百分点;毛利率 ;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点。"]}}