{"F": {"ts_code": "000727.SZ", "name": "冠捷科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "光学光电子", "sw3": "面板", "ind": "光学光电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19970520", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 2.26, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 6.1269, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1023682.142, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [12.8, 10.2, 10.0, 13.1, 12.3, 10.2], "rev_series": [685.6, 706.1, 618.8, 546.0, 552.3, 542.6], "np_series": [7.5, 5.3, 0.9, 2.8, 0.9, -7.8], "roe_series": [26.4, 30.1, 3.7, 10.0, 3.2, -31.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 559.5, "np_ttm": -6.9, "ocf_ttm": -15.1, "fcf_ttm": -24.7, "fcf_yield": -24.1, "ocf_yield": -14.7, "gm_median": 10.2, "gm_std": 1.3, "gm_stab": 0.87, "gm_chg_2022": -2.8, "npm_median": 0.6, "roe_median": 3.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 9.9, "fix_assets": 39.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 6.13, "capex_dep": 1.1, "interest_debt": 141.2, "debt_ebitda": 10.7, "debt_ratio": 82.6, "debt_mv": 138.0, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -4.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 6.8, "np_yoy": 18.8, "np_vol": 395.3, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["显示器产品", 20.0], ["显示器", 20.0], ["电视产品", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": -8.6, "ret_prev2_year": 3.7, "ret_ytd": -11.0, "ret_pivot": 16.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.3, "ret_60": -12.1, "ret_120": -18.1, "ret_250": -14.4, "mdd_250": -30.3, "vol_250": 44.1, "pos_52w": 73.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 41, "hard": 16, "bondness": 35}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -6.9 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 83%,有息负债 141 亿,经营现金流/市值 -14.7%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 10%,毛利率近 5 年中位 10.2%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -24.1%(经营现金流/市值 -14.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 10.2%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 10%,资本开支/折旧 1.10 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -14%,最大回撤 -30%,年化波动 44%,现价在 52 周高点的 74%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / -12% / -18%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「光学光电子」95 家中位:PE 61.6 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 19.3% / 固定资产占比 31% / 分红率 43%。", "冠捷科技:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 9.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 21.5个百分点。"]}}