{"F": {"ts_code": "000722.SZ", "name": "湖南发展", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "电力", "sw3": "水力发电", "ind": "电力", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19970522", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.32, "pe_ttm": 55.7347, "pb": 2.2496, "dv_ttm": 0.2723, "total_mv": 852199.4808, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [36.1, 27.9, 25.7, 38.1, 44.9, 40.2], "rev_series": [3.1, 4.8, 4.1, 2.9, 3.4, 3.5], "np_series": [1.0, 1.2, 0.7, 0.5, 0.7, 0.7], "roe_series": [3.3, 3.9, 2.2, 1.6, 2.2, 2.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 7.1, "np_ttm": 2.2, "ocf_ttm": 5.0, "fcf_ttm": 3.8, "fcf_yield": 4.5, "ocf_yield": 5.8, "gm_median": 38.1, "gm_std": 7.4, "gm_stab": 0.81, "gm_chg_2022": -10.4, "npm_median": 18.4, "roe_median": 2.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 62.5, "fix_assets": 41.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.25, "capex_dep": 0.75, "interest_debt": 17.5, "debt_ebitda": 3.8, "debt_ratio": 40.2, "debt_mv": 20.5, "payout": 33.3, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -5.4, "np_cagr3": 1.4, "rev_yoy": 31.2, "np_yoy": 77.4, "np_vol": 30.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 91.0, "earn_yield": 1.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["清洁能源(产品)", 32.0], ["清洁能源", 32.0], ["自然资源", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 25.7, "ret_prev2_year": -1.2, "ret_ytd": 13.4, "ret_pivot": 58.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.8, "ret_60": -6.7, "ret_120": -2.1, "ret_250": 2.4, "mdd_250": -41.1, "vol_250": 50.8, "pos_52w": 73.1}, "S": {"duration": 75, "pricing": 51, "hard": 100, "bondness": 45}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 55.7 倍、股息率 0.3%、毛利率近 5 年中位 38.1%、固定资产占比 62%、有息负债/EBITDA 3.8 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 62%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 38.1%,稳定度 81%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.5%(经营现金流/市值 5.8%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 38.1%,稳定度 81%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 62%,资本开支/折旧 0.75 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 55.7 倍 粗算,约 91%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 2%,最大回撤 -41%,年化波动 51%,现价在 52 周高点的 73%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -7% / -2%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电力」109 家中位:PE 27.8 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 22.5% / 固定资产占比 61% / 分红率 42%。", "湖南发展:PE 比行业中位高 27.9倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 15.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.8个百分点。"]}}