{"F": {"ts_code": "000719.SZ", "name": "中原传媒", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "传媒", "sw2": "出版", "sw3": "大众出版", "ind": "出版", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19970331", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.47, "pe_ttm": 9.455, "pb": 1.0566, "dv_ttm": 5.2927, "total_mv": 1275935.0139, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [31.1, 35.8, 36.4, 38.4, 39.2, 42.3], "rev_series": [95.9, 92.6, 96.3, 98.3, 98.6, 93.5], "np_series": [9.3, 9.8, 10.3, 13.9, 10.3, 13.8], "roe_series": [10.8, 10.6, 10.7, 13.4, 9.2, 11.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 89.9, "np_ttm": 13.5, "ocf_ttm": 17.5, "fcf_ttm": 13.4, "fcf_yield": 10.5, "ocf_yield": 13.7, "gm_median": 38.4, "gm_std": 2.3, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": 5.3, "npm_median": 10.8, "roe_median": 10.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 21.6, "fix_assets": 42.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.06, "capex_dep": 2.04, "interest_debt": 1.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 38.1, "debt_mv": 0.8, "payout": 49.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -1.0, "np_cagr3": 10.0, "rev_yoy": -7.8, "np_yoy": -4.9, "np_vol": 22.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 47.0, "earn_yield": 10.6, "consensus_n": 8, "fwd_pe": 8.9, "fwd_pe2": 8.5, "fwd_g1": 6.0, "fwd_g2": 5.0, "peg": 1.78, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["图书发行", 45.0], ["发行业务：图书", 45.0], ["图书出版", 17.0], ["出版业务：图书", 17.0]], "ret_prev_year": 9.9, "ret_prev2_year": 25.5, "ret_ytd": 12.3, "ret_pivot": 35.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.8, "ret_60": 6.9, "ret_120": 2.0, "ret_250": -0.9, "mdd_250": -23.3, "vol_250": 30.1, "pos_52w": 90.1}, "S": {"duration": 21, "pricing": 63, "hard": 35, "bondness": 68}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 49%、股息率 5.3%、营收 3 年复合 -1.0%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.1 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 38.4%),硬资产占比 22%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 10.5%(经营现金流/市值 13.7%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 38.4%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 5.3 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 22%,资本开支/折旧 2.04 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 9.5 倍 粗算,约 47%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -1%,最大回撤 -23%,年化波动 30%,现价在 52 周高点的 90%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / 7% / 2%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「出版」29 家中位:PE 32.6 / 股息率 2.2% / 毛利率 34.7% / 固定资产占比 10% / 分红率 50%。", "中原传媒:PE 比行业中位低 23.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 3.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 11.9个百分点。"]}}