{"F": {"ts_code": "000716.SZ", "name": "黑芝麻", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "休闲食品", "sw3": "零食", "ind": "休闲食品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19970418", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.46, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.6264, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 411074.6913, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [19.3, 18.3, 20.1, 23.6, 23.9, 23.0], "rev_series": [38.4, 40.2, 30.2, 26.8, 24.6, 22.6], "np_series": [0.1, -1.1, -1.4, 0.4, 0.8, -0.5], "roe_series": [0.3, -4.1, -5.5, 1.7, 3.1, -1.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 25.2, "np_ttm": -0.2, "ocf_ttm": 3.7, "fcf_ttm": 2.9, "fcf_yield": 7.0, "ocf_yield": 9.0, "gm_median": 23.0, "gm_std": 2.2, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": 0.8, "npm_median": -2.1, "roe_median": -1.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 32.5, "fix_assets": 14.2, "goodwill_ratio": 7.5, "pb_calc": 1.63, "capex_dep": 0.92, "interest_debt": 12.0, "debt_ebitda": 6.2, "debt_ratio": 38.9, "debt_mv": 29.3, "payout": 67.1, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -9.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 28.5, "np_yoy": 302.9, "np_vol": 530.7, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 36.0], ["冲饮系列", 12.0], ["冲饮类", 12.0], ["第三方品牌电商业务(含服务费)", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": -8.8, "ret_prev2_year": 15.4, "ret_ytd": -12.4, "ret_pivot": 55.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 16.2, "ret_60": 18.7, "ret_120": -4.5, "ret_250": -20.1, "mdd_250": -40.6, "vol_250": 43.5, "pos_52w": 80.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 51, "hard": 52, "bondness": 58}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 39%,有息负债 12 亿,经营现金流/市值 9.0%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 32%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 23.0%,稳定度 90%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 7.0%(经营现金流/市值 9.0%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 23.0%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 32%,资本开支/折旧 0.92 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -20%,最大回撤 -41%,年化波动 44%,现价在 52 周高点的 80%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 16% / 19% / -4%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「休闲食品」22 家中位:PE 21.1 / 股息率 2.9% / 毛利率 29.5% / 固定资产占比 31% / 分红率 67%。", "黑芝麻:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.6个百分点。"]}}