{"F": {"ts_code": "000712.SZ", "name": "锦龙股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "非银金融", "sw2": "证券Ⅱ", "sw3": "证券Ⅲ", "ind": "证券Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19970415", "is_fin": true, "roles": {"fin": true, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.35, "pe_ttm": 64.0047, "pb": 4.1259, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1106560.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [null, null, null, null, null, null], "rev_series": [16.7, 10.1, 2.5, 1.9, 6.6, 9.3], "np_series": [0.7, -1.3, -3.9, -3.8, -0.9, 2.8], "roe_series": [2.0, -3.9, -12.8, -14.4, -3.7, 11.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.6, "np_ttm": 1.7, "ocf_ttm": 24.0, "fcf_ttm": 23.3, "fcf_yield": 21.1, "ocf_yield": 21.7, "gm_median": null, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": -14.0, "roe_median": -3.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 2.1, "fix_assets": 5.2, "goodwill_ratio": 1.4, "pb_calc": 4.13, "capex_dep": 3.29, "interest_debt": 42.9, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 80.8, "debt_mv": 38.8, "payout": null, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 55.5, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -16.3, "np_yoy": -88.6, "np_vol": 248.6, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["手续费及佣金净收入：手续费及佣金收入", 25.0], ["手续费及佣金净收入：证券经纪业务净收入：证券经纪", 20.0], ["手续费及佣金净收入：证券经纪业务净收入：证券经纪", 19.0], ["证券经纪业务", 17.0]], "ret_prev_year": -20.5, "ret_prev2_year": 3.1, "ret_ytd": 2.7, "ret_pivot": 22.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 31.4, "ret_60": 45.5, "ret_120": 10.5, "ret_250": -20.0, "mdd_250": -46.8, "vol_250": 44.6, "pos_52w": 79.5}, "S": {"duration": 80, "pricing": null, "hard": null, "bondness": 3}, "label": "金融·利差生意", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["锦龙股份 是证券Ⅱ。银行赚的是利差,券商保险赚的是资产端与费率,毛利率与固定资产两个轴对它没有意义。", "ROE 近 5 年中位 -3.9%,PB 4.13倍,股息率 —,分红率 —。", "利率上行对银行是净息差扩张(少数受益方向);对保险是资产端浮亏、对券商是交投与融资成本。"], "加息期怎么走": "按笔记:日债/美债收益率上行期,银行股是例外的受益方向;红利型大行按'现金流红利'拿,盯息差而不盯黄金。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "金融业现金流表不适用;用盈利收益率 1.6%(1/PE)与股息率 — 看。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 64.0 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -20%,最大回撤 -47%,年化波动 45%,现价在 52 周高点的 80%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 31% / 46% / 10%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「证券Ⅱ」50 家中位:PE 15.7 / 股息率 1.9% / 毛利率 10.2% / 固定资产占比 0% / 分红率 33%。", "锦龙股份:PE 比行业中位高 48.3倍;股息率 ;毛利率 ;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.7个百分点。"]}}