{"F": {"ts_code": "000709.SZ", "name": "河钢股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "钢铁", "sw2": "普钢", "sw3": "板材", "ind": "普钢", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19970416", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 2.1, "pe_ttm": 20.843, "pb": 0.4183, "dv_ttm": 1.9048, "total_mv": 2170795.431, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [12.4, 11.0, 9.3, 10.2, 9.7, 10.7], "rev_series": [1076.6, 1496.3, 1434.7, 1227.4, 1216.2, 1181.4], "np_series": [17.0, 26.9, 14.0, 10.8, 7.1, 10.0], "roe_series": [3.0, 4.9, 2.6, 1.9, 1.2, 1.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1177.1, "np_ttm": 10.4, "ocf_ttm": 102.8, "fcf_ttm": -54.5, "fcf_yield": -25.1, "ocf_yield": 47.4, "gm_median": 10.2, "gm_std": 0.6, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -3.1, "npm_median": 1.0, "roe_median": 1.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 60.2, "fix_assets": 1630.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.37, "capex_dep": 1.84, "interest_debt": 1379.6, "debt_ebitda": 9.1, "debt_ratio": 74.7, "debt_mv": 635.5, "payout": 51.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -6.3, "np_cagr3": -10.4, "rev_yoy": -0.6, "np_yoy": 6.6, "np_vol": 42.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 76.0, "earn_yield": 4.8, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 13.1, "fwd_pe2": 10.5, "fwd_g1": 59.0, "fwd_g2": 25.0, "peg": 0.52, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["板材", 34.0], ["棒材及型材", 5.0], ["气体、水电等其他产品", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 6.1, "ret_prev2_year": 5.9, "ret_ytd": -7.5, "ret_pivot": 26.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.4, "ret_60": 2.9, "ret_120": -19.2, "ret_250": -12.9, "mdd_250": -28.6, "vol_250": 29.5, "pos_52w": 78.9}, "S": {"duration": 41, "pricing": 43, "hard": 96, "bondness": 64}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 60%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 10.2%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.1 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 9.1 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 60%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 10.2%,稳定度 94%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -25.1%(经营现金流/市值 47.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 10.2%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 60%,资本开支/折旧 1.84 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 20.8 倍 粗算,约 76%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -13%,最大回撤 -29%,年化波动 30%,现价在 52 周高点的 79%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / 3% / -19%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「普钢」22 家中位:PE 24.6 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 3.5% / 固定资产占比 58% / 分红率 57%。", "河钢股份:PE 比行业中位低 3.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 6.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 2.0个百分点。"]}}