{"F": {"ts_code": "000708.SZ", "name": "中信特钢", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "钢铁", "sw2": "特钢Ⅱ", "sw3": "特钢Ⅲ", "ind": "特钢Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19970326", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.59, "pe_ttm": 11.2072, "pb": 1.5644, "dv_ttm": 4.752, "total_mv": 6859088.5374, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [18.0, 17.1, 14.7, 13.1, 12.8, 14.9], "rev_series": [747.3, 973.3, 983.4, 1140.2, 1092.0, 1073.7], "np_series": [60.2, 79.5, 71.1, 57.2, 51.3, 59.3], "roe_series": [22.5, 26.0, 20.6, 15.3, 12.9, 14.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1063.3, "np_ttm": 61.2, "ocf_ttm": 132.6, "fcf_ttm": 124.7, "fcf_yield": 18.2, "ocf_yield": 19.3, "gm_median": 14.7, "gm_std": 1.5, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -3.2, "npm_median": 5.6, "roe_median": 15.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 45.9, "fix_assets": 490.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.55, "capex_dep": 0.17, "interest_debt": 305.9, "debt_ebitda": 2.4, "debt_ratio": 56.8, "debt_mv": 44.6, "payout": 50.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 3.0, "np_cagr3": -5.9, "rev_yoy": -1.9, "np_yoy": 6.8, "np_vol": 19.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 55.0, "earn_yield": 8.9, "consensus_n": 8, "fwd_pe": 10.8, "fwd_pe2": 9.9, "fwd_g1": 4.0, "fwd_g2": 9.0, "peg": 1.2, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["特殊钢棒材", 42.0], ["特种无缝钢管", 25.0], ["特殊钢线材", 13.0], ["其他业务", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 55.3, "ret_prev2_year": -16.8, "ret_ytd": -14.7, "ret_pivot": 43.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.2, "ret_60": -1.7, "ret_120": -19.7, "ret_250": 8.4, "mdd_250": -28.2, "vol_250": 29.7, "pos_52w": 77.3}, "S": {"duration": 24, "pricing": 44, "hard": 73, "bondness": 70}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["现金流红利", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 46%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 14.7%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.2 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 2.4 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 46%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 14.7%,稳定度 90%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 18.2%(经营现金流/市值 19.3%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 14.7%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 46%,资本开支/折旧 0.17 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 11.2 倍 粗算,约 55%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 8%,最大回撤 -28%,年化波动 30%,现价在 52 周高点的 77%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -2% / -20%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「特钢Ⅱ」12 家中位:PE 15.6 / 股息率 3.2% / 毛利率 11.3% / 固定资产占比 37% / 分红率 50%。", "中信特钢:PE 比行业中位低 4.4倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 8.5个百分点。"]}}